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Value Investing

Stock picks, arbitrage opportunities, earnings breakdowns, portfolio strategy, and market commentary from a concentrated-position investor who thinks in decades.

242 posts on markets, money, and conviction.

242 Investing Posts

Stock analysis, earnings deep-dives, arbitrage plays, portfolio updates, and market calls — organized by year.

2014

25 posts
NUCLEAR LIE DETECTED: Problem No. 2: Saving and investing for five years isn't how you become wealthy$ARCP probably a buy as wussies get taken out back $AIG I agree with Starr. This is a takings. This is a blackeye backdoor bailout of $GS $BAC etc.Why you're a poor headed millionaire @melhicken @ramit @tferriss$RNDY it is ok as a spec but... whatever$Y.CA $YLWDF $Y.TO DBRS Changes Trends on Yellow Media to Positive from Stable, Upgrades YPG Financing's Senior Secured NotesDC Payments. $DCTFF$Y.ca $ylwdfHow to make a millionCharles Tips's answer to: What are good ways to prepare my kids to be billionaires? Glen's notes in red$y.ca $y.to $ylwdf funniest part of their report$Y.CA $Y.to $YLWDF Yellow Media Captures Digital Market after Going through Debt Restructuring$BDORY banco de brasil $BBAS3.saAdvice for people who want diversified protection and think the market is overvalued~1000 days - $DXM $YLWDF timeline analysis - market has given up on dex - not so fast!Full Disclosure. This is how I roll now. And I am going to try and borrow a million dollars this year.Value Stocks Have Been SoaringA lesson on repatriation $CDR Codere $TEO Telecom Argentina Codere up 63.64% todayCost $3,900. What does this buy me? 5 months to decide if I want to pay $195,000 for a business that makes $286,000 a year. SOLD!canaccord raising their price target for yellow media $YLWDF $Y.CA $Y.TO report here$GVC.TO $GVC.CA $PNC.A $PNC.B $TS.B $Y.cA $DXM $LOCAL $ENRO:SS$NXST 100 bagger in 5 years$ETL $SSNLF 005380:Korea 066570:KS$MNI still cheap from the long view$CIDM --- probably worth a double from here or more.

2013

91 posts
REBOUND How investors can play ‘broken’ stocks$CALL worth $20Yellow Media Road Show Presentation $Y $Y.CA $Y.TO $YLWDF$IMOS --- bad financial management, great execution EV/EBITDA 1.9x worth $40$SUNS $PFLT $ARCC $NMFC $FSC $MCC $GBDC $HRZN $TICC $SLRC $TCRD $FDUS $BKCC $AINV $MCGC $PNNT $GLAD $FULL $PSEC $HTGC $KCAP $ACASCANSO @ $384M of YPG 29.5% up from 24.2% $YLWDF $Y.CA $Y.TO$y.to $y.ca $DXM $LEE $GCI $NYT BIA/Kelsey Conf. how the impact of digital will be higher and faster and ways that it will beat their raised forecastKnow of any small-mid size companies around 250-1500 people? Looking for a direct investment of $50M-$150M USD.Yellow Media All Debt Trading Over Par $YLWDF $Y.TO $Y.CA$NCT $Y.TO $Y.CA $DXM $NYT $GCI $LEE http://www.distressed-debt-investing.com/ Tålamod Asset Management $Y.CA $Y.TO $YLWDFIndependent Credit Research - $Y.CA $Y.TO $YLWDF - highlightsShould compare EVs not Market Caps $AAPL $GOOG $FB $Y.CA $Y.TO $YLWDF $GCI $NYT $MNI $DXMYellow Media's CEO Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call TranscriptPrint Yellow Pages Still Dominant vs. Paid and Organic Search in North American Rural Markets Read more: http://www.virtual-strategy.com/2013/10/17/print-yellow-pages-still-dominant-vs-paid-and-organic-search-north-american-rural-markets#ixzz2i0uc3a9l Read more at http://www.virtual-strategy.com/2013/10/17/print-yellow-pages-still-dominant-vs-paid-and-organic-search-north-american-rural-markets#wkuX0g0dHzIPte2h.99Yellow Media - The Credit Ratings Agencies vs. The Market$DXM Debt Destruction! $DXM HUGE FILING. PAID DOWN $475M of DEBT in Q2$Y $Y.CA Stock Price Question$Y $Y.CA $DXM $GCI $LEE $MNI $NYT we've reached a significant turning point in the history of digital media$DXM We now have but one choice$AOL $SCOR $IACI $OMC $RLOC $GOOG $IPG $LNKD Price of Online Business ex-Print 5.7x EV/EBITDA - below market $Y $Y.CA$Y $Y.CA $DXM Digital & Mobile Formats Spur Growth in the Yellow Pages Market, According to New Report by Global Industry Analysts, Inc.$Y $Y.CA $DXM Global Yellow Pages Industry to decline at more stable pace 10.1% to 4.1% thanks to online digital revenue$DXM 2016 P/LFCF < 1 short interest back up, P/EBITDA < 1/3, new to Russell 2000$DXM$LEE I was off by 379 Days. tldr; 185% return in 559 days.$DXM added to russell 3000 and $DXM and $Y.CA $Y added to russell global$AIG TARP WARRANTS VS $Y CBCA WARRANTS$DXM $10.6M of short position covered 5/15 to 5/31. $35M still short.EDIT - NOTES BELOW RATINGS JARGON: $DXM Caa1 corporate family rating and a Caa1-PD probability of default rating --- Moody's expectation that Dex Media will opportunistically repurchase debt at a discount in the future.$DXM - don't forget we were over $100 less than 3 years ago$Y $Y.CA --- this discrepancy cannot be justified by anything else except the market ignorance. "Greenblatt’s private investment partnership has logged a 40% annualised return since its inception in 1985."Interesting $DXM $Y.CA $Y comp - AXEL SPRINGER AG Axel Springer AG(SPR) - $36.10 on Feb 28, 2013 by jdr907Keck Seng Investments (HK) Limited(HKG:0184) - will thrower notes HKD$4.18 4% yield$ENRO Eniro $DXM $Y $Y.CA Comparable EV/EBITDA ballpark math 6.85x 77% Digital$BP $43.52 5% yield - looks relatively undervalued and has my favorite value investors on board$DXM .15% still short. Shorts slowly putting on pants.$MNI Will Thrower Notes$DXM S&P Rates Dex Media Inc. 'B-'; Outlook Neg$DXM "gloves off" filing results in paulson dropping $6M and buying 2% more of Dex Media, upping his stake$DXM S&P upgrade Research Update: Dex Media Inc. Assigned 'B-' Corporate Credit Rating; Outlook Negative$DXM Dex Media’s Richard Wall Named “One to Watch” by CIO Magazine$DXM - not sure if i highlighted the summary points from this kyle bass WSJ coverage$DXM - $17 - Feels like it's going to let loose$DXM Q&A$DXM - heavy weight investors allowed to take their gloves off --- prepare for price volatility/intensityGeorge Schultze - 30 minute vid $DXM The Art of Vulture Investing$DXM http://blog.kelseygroup.com/ Dex Media Banks on ‘Trusted Advisor’ Role$DXM Forbes - What's The Story With Dex Media And Why Is It So Darn Cheap?I want to be the CEO of Yellow Media $Y $DXM$DXM Conf Call Transcript Highlights "we believe this is the right path to sustainable and profitable growth."$DXM Dex Media Debt to Go to Par After Bankruptcy, Hayman’s Bass Says$DXM Kyle Bass notes$DXM $Y $Y.CAToday $DXM $Y.CA $Y - obviously ameritrade quotes lag$Y $Y.CA $DXM Yellow Media Q1 2013 Highlight Reel Diluted EPS 1.64Name That Stock!$DXM First Chart$DEXO $SPMD Yellow Pages and Trash Boxes Versus Common Sense$Y $13.50 - It’s time to buy Yellow Media again: Canaccord$DEXO $SPMD DEX ONE, SUPERMEDIA WIN APPROVAL TO MERGE, EXIT BANKRUPTCY$DEXO $SPMD $DXM New York Stock Exchange Announces Withdrawal of Dex One Corporation's Appeal and Suspension of TradingBrilliant Slide Deck on Debt @CapitalismWorld $DEXO $GS $BAC $IPG $OSTKOutdated March 2012 The Superinvestor Issue Link$SPMD $DEXO GL Operating Reports$spmd $dexo i object to this objection$GOOG $DEXO $SPMD $MNI $AIG $MNI $LEE - trading strat kills it$SPMD $DEXO : "The hearing is canceled at the direction of the court"$DEXO $SPMD weekly/monthly Cash Flow Reports from BK filingsDex Media EV Forecast $DEXO $SPMD $DXM SuperMedia Dex One$DEXO VOTE PASS $SPMD VOTE PASS MERGER IS ON$Dexo Updates $spmd new 52-week highs, more to come$MNI $NYT notes from Will ThrowerSuperMedia / Dex One Creditor Document $SPMD $DEXO$AIG warrant math IRR 18% thru 2021$DEXO hello mittlemen brothers, ownership over 100%hello mittleman brothers $DEXO inst. ownership 100%+$DEXO 20% Short position can't exit through 0.36% freely trading window with 99.64% held by Long non-retail, registered, institutional-type holders$DEXO $SPMD - My Timeline - Starting June 2011March 13, 2013 $DEXO $SPMD Favorite 1,200 Pages Ever!Yellow Media $264M vs my est. $262M in revenue. $141M in EBITDA vs my $128M in EBITDA $BBY $AIG $AAPL $Y $DEXO $SPMD $HTCH $NFLX $CYBXKyle Bass $JPY - too bad he's wrong$DEXO Breakout$DEXO bloomberg terminal$AAPL - Margins - In Decline$DEXO Dex One Named Winner of Google Premier SMB Partner Award for Largest Increase in Advertiser BasePhone Book Forecast $y $dexo $spmdYellow Pages Deliveries Will Continue - KQED News Staff $DEXO $SPMD $Y

2012

33 posts
Cheap Stocks $DEXO $SPMD $BAC $AIG $YLO specifically AIG warrants and ylo preferredsmy notes $SPMD $DEXO $YLO non crisis pricing$SD $PAL $XCO $ARCO $MRVL $ACIDex One and SuperMedia Will Combine to Create a National Provider of Social, Local and Mobile Marketing SolutionsYELLOW MEDIA: EBITDA of $145M, I was predicting $142M. They came in at $286M when I predicted $282M for revenue. I was called optimistic and they CRUSHED my estimates.Yellow Media’s recapitalization campaign spells hope for stockHow to buy multi bagger stocks? Rakesh Jhunjhunwala & Others Guidelines To YouCredit Ratings Summaries for $SPMD $DEXO $YLO.toYLO - Edward Vranic - SeekingAlphaYLO Preferred C and D time arbitrage (60 Days)$BAJ CYABaja Mining Ticker $BAJ.TO and PinkSheets: $BAJFFLetter to an Investor $DEXO $YLOYellow Media - BUY before you miss out.How did Yellow Media's stock go from $17 to 17 cents? AT&T to sell most of Yellow Pages to Cerberus From The Detroit NewsPrivate-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management is buying half of AT&T Corp.’s directories business in a deal that values the whole enterprise at almost $2-billion (U.S.), suggesting Yellow Media is worth more than bond markets are pricing in.P/E 0.21; Price: $0.075; Worst Analyst EPS: $0.35Screenwerk - YPG: Online Now 29% of Total Revenuessearchengineland: Four Key Reasons To Reconsider Today’s Yellow Pages For Local MarketingA Year Ago today, YLO's $0.65 cent dividend was probably sustainable / not a slam dunkReggie Middleton on $AAPL - I agree - Shoe to drop in the next 2 yearsWho is John Galt? Yellow Media Upside Stands at 3387.35955% $YLOYLO - total valuation of company is less then monthly revenueYellow Media Upside Potential Doubles to 2000%+ $YLOYellow Media $YLOYellow Media $YLO (My favorite company) Closes down Can Pages$DHT Looks like it bottomedMy Personal Evolution: The Investor dies; Trader is Born$LEE$YLO Yellow Media Resources$YLO stockhouse is where you want to be - linksYellow Media $YLO US Exchange short analysis

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