CBEH end of 2012 would be

$2 EPS ~ $103M net income $5.73 in cash ... and their return on invested dollars is roughly 33%, payback period roughly 2 years.

so for every $1 they invest, they get $0.33 the next year and $0.66 the following year.. following year repeating

so, you figure at any point in time they could convert $1 in cash to $0.66 in earnings 2 years later.

so right now after all expense they have $88.3M cash - $13M for working capital (88.3 - (50-37 for hainan)) = $75.3M cash to work with that's not tied up.

that's $1.44/share

so you figure if they start converting that.

right now their eps for 2011 is roughly $1.33 and for 2012 is $2.00.

if they convert $1 of cash to eps, they get

$1.33 eps 2011, $2.33 eps 2012, $2.66 eps 2013

if they convert next years earnings of $2 into eps.

you get $1.33 eps 2011, $2.33 eps 2012, $3.33 eps 2013, $4 eps 2014, anyway you see how this goes.

CBEH - FD share count 2011 eps

sept 30 2010: 43.96 mill 2.1+3.5 (capital raise) 1.1 + 1.7 (warrants)

49.56-52.36M shares

cash: 79M sept 30 2010 15.3+24.7 (capital raise) 7.65+12.9 warrant

119M-$139.55M+12M for Q4 earnings-25.7M spent in Q4 for acquisitions = $125.3 Right now - 37M for hainan = 88.3M of cash after all of the planned expenses.

Management expects to report sales of $435 million and net income of $53.5 million for the full year ended December 31, 2010.

that is EPS of $1 Cash of $2.39 (End of 2010 with capital raises - spent Q4) Stock Price $6 (current)

for 2011 i'm figuring that cash - 37M for hainan 435M of revenues + (below)

40/140M of revenues from hainan, 84M 2012 140M 2013 45M chongquing 21M new facility in Tongchuan

x

.128 net margin (this is actually off.. and is a lowball estimate upon reflection within the 15 minute guideline) $70M Net income =$1.33 EPS =$3.73 in cash

that would be my proformas

cash analysis continued