$NOV

summary of my perspective: not yet, but solid idea

a few things, mostly regarding timing and right now i think the timing is bad although i think that in 5 years the stock will be higher, this was one of the companies that i followed back in 2008.

right now, oil supply exceeds oil demand, and i think that there is good reason to believe that oil will set new 10 year lows, note that this is less than $40/barrel and back in 2008 when oil cratered NOV was around $20 at the bottom

so, i expect oil to drop significantly, i also expect that poor earnings will flow through in the next couple quarters due to lower oil prices and lower demand ...

and then there are price liquidations, aka the people that will sell due to lower price, and then later this year tax loss selling, etc.

i think that there will be a better buying opportunity here, but i also think that once these low oil prices blow over (12-24 months, as early as the back half of this year), that oil will climb back up to a point that will fill the backlog of national oilwell varco, and then it will (based on what happened in 2008-2009), take around 2 years for the stock to climb back up to the $80's.

so right now, i think that it's top heavy but once things fall apart this wouldn't be a bad place to take a 10% position or so, it's not risky from a debt perspective considering that they don't have any.