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Fanniegate · The Trump Plan

Trump's Fannie & Freddie Plan

IPO. Sovereign wealth fund. Implicit guarantees kept.

What Trump has actually said and done about Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the conservatorship — Feb 2025 to today, with the live legal hurdles spelled out.

Feb 3, 2025

SWF executive order

May 27, 2025

'Implicit GUARANTEES'

8.5%

ERCF capital target

$187B

Treasury senior preferred

The Statement That Changed Everything

May 27, 2025 · @realDonaldTrump on Truth Social

"Our great mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream — Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC, but I want to be clear, the U.S. Government will keep its implicit GUARANTEES, and I will stay strong in my position on overseeing them as President. These agencies are now doing very well, and will help us to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

Three commitments: (1) take public, (2) keep implicit guarantees, (3) maintain Presidential oversight. The first explicit Presidential affirmation of the implicit guarantee policy in the conservatorship era.

The Timeline — From 2021 Framework to 2026 Mechanics

Treasury / FHFA Letter Agreement (final week of Trump 1.0)

Jan 14, 2021

Mark Calabria's FHFA and Steven Mnuchin's Treasury suspended the Net Worth Sweep, allowed unlimited capital retention, and laid out conditions for ending conservatorship: resolved litigation, 3% common equity tier 1 capital, and Treasury exercising its 79.9% warrant. The framework that every subsequent IPO plan has built on.

Trump 2.0 sworn in

Jan 20, 2025

Returns to office with a Treasury Secretary (Scott Bessent) and FHFA Director (William Pulte, confirmed shortly after) explicitly aligned on conservatorship exit.

Sovereign Wealth Fund executive order

Feb 3, 2025

Trump signs an executive order directing Treasury and Commerce to submit a plan within 90 days to create a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. Widely interpreted as the absorption mechanism for Treasury's senior preferred stake and warrants in Fannie and Freddie — a way to monetize the GSE recap without congressional action.

The 'implicit GUARANTEES' Truth Social post

May 27, 2025

Trump posts: "Our great mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream — Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC, but I want to be clear, the U.S. Government will keep its implicit GUARANTEES, and I will stay strong in my position on overseeing them as President. These agencies are now doing very well, and will help us to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" — the first explicit Presidential affirmation of the implicit guarantees as policy.

Source: @realDonaldTrump on Truth Social

Treasury / FHFA coordination + 'Termination Proposal' framework

2025 H2

Per the January 2, 2025 Treasury/FHFA side letter, FHFA was directed to provide a 'specific proposal that sets forth the Agency's recommended approach to the termination of the conservatorship' — including a market impact assessment and any required SPSPA / Certificate / Warrant amendments.

Bankers reportedly hired

Q1 2026

Reports of investment banks being engaged to advise on Fannie/Freddie secondary offering preparation. The IPO machinery is moving from policy to mechanics.

DC Circuit hears Berkley class-action appeal

Apr 21, 2026

The 'all material litigation resolved' precondition from the 2021 Letter Agreement is partly out of the administration's hands. The DC Circuit panel (Walker, Childs, Ginsburg) hears oral argument; opinion expected July 2026 - January 2027.

Where things stand right now

May 2026

ERCF capital target is 8.5%. Enterprises have built substantial — but not yet sufficient — capital. The conservatorship exit will likely require an SPSPA amendment, a Treasury IPO offering of warrant common stock, and either a settlement of or a final ruling in the Berkley case.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Trump's actual plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?

Per his May 27, 2025 Truth Social statement, the plan has three explicit elements: (1) take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public via IPO, (2) keep the federal government's 'implicit GUARANTEES' of their obligations as official policy through and after the IPO, and (3) maintain Presidential oversight. The mechanics — SPSPA renegotiation, warrant exercise, sovereign wealth fund absorption of Treasury's senior preferred stake — are being worked out by Treasury (Bessent) and FHFA (Pulte) with banker support.

What did Trump's May 27, 2025 statement actually say?

The full text from @realDonaldTrump on Truth Social: 'Our great mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, provide a vital service to our Nation by helping hardworking Americans reach the American Dream — Home Ownership. I am working on TAKING THESE AMAZING COMPANIES PUBLIC, but I want to be clear, the U.S. Government will keep its implicit GUARANTEES, and I will stay strong in my position on overseeing them as President. These agencies are now doing very well, and will help us to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!' This is the first explicit Presidential affirmation that the implicit guarantee will continue as policy through any conservatorship exit. It is currently being cited in active federal litigation (Joshua Angel v. United States, Angel V).

What does the February 3, 2025 sovereign wealth fund executive order have to do with Fannie and Freddie?

The executive order directs Treasury and Commerce to design a U.S. sovereign wealth fund within 90 days. Critically, Treasury currently holds approximately $187B in senior preferred stock liquidation preference plus warrants for 79.9% of the common stock of each Enterprise. The cleanest way to take Fannie and Freddie public without congressional action is to transfer Treasury's stake into the sovereign wealth fund and then have the SWF either hold or sell down via secondary offerings. The EO created the legal vehicle.

When will Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac IPO?

There is no announced date as of May 2026. The Berkley class action is on appeal at the D.C. Circuit (oral argument heard April 21, 2026; opinion expected Jul 2026 - Jan 2027), and the January 2021 Letter Agreement requires 'all material litigation' to be resolved before exit. So the realistic IPO window is late 2026 at earliest, more likely 2027. That said, an SPSPA amendment to suspend the litigation precondition is within the administration's power if Treasury and FHFA agree.

What does Trump's plan mean for FNMAS, FMCKJ, and other junior preferred shareholders?

Mechanically, an IPO requires Fannie and Freddie to recapitalize to the 8.5% ERCF level. That cannot happen with junior preferred shares trading at deep discounts to par, because the preferreds occupy capital-stack seats that need to be cleared for the recap math to work. The two paths shareholders watch for: (1) a tender or exchange offer at par-ish prices to clear the junior preferred stack, or (2) reinstatement of the dividend rights such that the preferreds approach par via cumulative coupon payments. Either is a substantial gain from current trading levels. Trump's confirmation of the implicit guarantee is the underwriting that makes either path credible.

Who is William Pulte and what's his role?

William Pulte is the FHFA Director under the second Trump administration, confirmed in 2025. He is an heir to the PulteGroup homebuilder family and has signaled active coordination with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the conservatorship-exit framework. The FHFA Director — as conservator under 12 U.S.C. § 4617 — has the legal authority to negotiate SPSPA amendments and ultimately to terminate the conservatorship. Pulte's role is therefore the most operationally important seat in the whole plan.

What are the legal hurdles to Trump's plan?

Three. First, the 'all material litigation' precondition in the 2021 Letter Agreement — primarily the Berkley class-action appeal at the D.C. Circuit. Second, the Treasury senior preferred liquidation preference, which currently sits at ~$187B and would need to be addressed (forgiven, exchanged, or absorbed by the sovereign wealth fund) before a clean IPO. Third, the November 2023 ERCF requires 8.5% risk-based capital for the Enterprises to operate as private entities — a bar that has not yet been reached. None of these are statutory; all are negotiable by Treasury and FHFA.

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