12
Years Researching
26
Preferred Series Held
1W-8L
Options Record
8
Books Published
This is not financial advice. I am not a registered investment advisor. This is my personal story and my personal money. All investments carry risk, including total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
The Honest Truth
Let me start with the part most people skip: I have been wrong before. A lot.
My options record is 1 win and 8 losses. GEO Group calls? Expired worthless. LUMN July 2025 $8 calls? Expired worthless. LDI mortgage calls? Worthless. I bought warrants on a company that filed Chapter 11. I lost money on FMCCL — the only GSE preferred series where my average sell price was below my average buy price. And years before all of this, I lost over $1M in China MediaExpress, a Chinese stock fraud — months after I had publicly warned people about Chinese stock fraud.
I am not a genius. I am not always right. I am a guy from Indiana with a Purdue engineering degree who has been researching one thesis for 12 years, writing about it obsessively, and putting every dollar he has behind it.
That thesis is Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The Thesis in 60 Seconds
If you only have a minute, this is everything.
Government places Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac into conservatorship
The two companies back ~$7 trillion in mortgages. Treasury injects $187.5B in senior preferred stock. Dividend payments on junior preferred shares are suspended.
The Net Worth Sweep — Third Amendment
Treasury amends the bailout terms to sweep ALL profits to the government — not just the 10% dividend. Fannie and Freddie have since sent ~$310B+ to Treasury, far exceeding the $187.5B injection.
Courts and shareholders fight back
Multiple lawsuits challenge the sweep. Collins v. Yellen reaches the Supreme Court. Shareholders argue the sweep was an unconstitutional taking of private property.
Election shifts the landscape
New administration signals interest in privatization. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly discusses releasing the GSEs from conservatorship.
Privatization catalysts accelerate
Executive orders reference FHFA directly. FSOC activities-based approach signals reform. Preferred shares trade at massive discounts to $25–$50 par values — the gap that defines the opportunity.
The math is simple:
If Fannie and Freddie exit conservatorship and preferred shares are recapitalized at or near par value, a share bought at $3–$7 with a $25–$50 par value represents a 4x to 15x return. That's the bet. Not a guarantee — a bet. And I've put everything on it.
Why Preferred, Not Common?
Junior Preferred
- +Stated par value ($25 or $50) — contractual claim
- +Higher in capital structure than common
- +If recapped at par, return is clearly defined
- −Limited upside beyond par (unlike common)
Common Stock
- +Unlimited upside if company re-IPOs at high valuation
- −No par value — no contractual floor
- −Last in line during any restructuring
- −Massive dilution risk from new equity issuance
I sold all my common shares around 2016 and converted everything into junior preferred. In my view, preferred shareholders have more certain upside on a pro forma basis after restructuring, with less exposure to dilution. Common could go higher in a best-case scenario — but preferred has a clearer path to recovery. I chose certainty of outcome over size of outcome.
The Numbers
These are real positions documented on my positions page and parsed from 4 years of Schwab exports.
26 series
of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac junior preferred stock held
~1% holder
of both FMCCS and FMCCJ — among the largest individual holders
2,068 trades
executed between April 2022 and March 2026 alone
~10x
peak price appreciation on FMCCJ ($2.07 to $22.14) and FMCCN ($2.27 to $22.00)
300+ articles
published on Seeking Alpha documenting the thesis in real time
8 books
written on Fanniegate — the government seizure and shareholder fight
What Could Go Wrong
If you're going to share this page, share this section too. The risks are real. I live with them every day.
Dilution Risk
highA recap could dilute preferred shareholders through new equity issuance. The terms of any restructuring are unknown. I could receive less than par.
Legislative Block
highCongress could pass legislation that restructures the GSEs in a way that impairs preferred shareholders. Political winds shift.
Timeline Risk
mediumI've been holding for 12 years. It could be another 5. Opportunity cost is real — the S&P 500 has tripled since 2014.
Concentration Risk
highMy entire net worth is in one thesis. If I'm wrong, I'm not 'down 20%' — I'm down everything. This is not a diversified portfolio.
Liquidity Risk
mediumOTC preferred shares are thinly traded. Getting in and out of large positions takes time and moves prices against you.
Regulatory Risk
mediumFHFA, Treasury, and the White House all have to align. Any one actor can delay or derail the process.
The bottom line: I could lose everything. That is not hyperbole. If Congress passes legislation that wipes out preferred shareholders, or if a restructuring terms sheet comes out that gives us 10 cents on the dollar, my life savings evaporate. I hold anyway — but I hold with eyes open, not because I'm blind to the risks.
What I've Sacrificed
12 Years of Concentration Risk
While friends diversified into index funds, real estate, and crypto, I kept every dollar in one thesis. The S&P 500 has roughly tripled since I started. I could have just bought SPY and gone to the beach.
Missed Opportunities
Every dollar in GSE preferred is a dollar not in NVDA, AAPL, BTC, or Miami real estate. I've watched other people get rich on things I deliberately chose not to buy. That stings. It's supposed to.
Personal Cost
Twelve years of explaining this trade to people who think you're crazy. Twelve years of “still holding?” at Thanksgiving. Twelve years of family members wondering if you've lost your mind. The emotional toll of conviction investing is something no prospectus warns you about.
“I don't respect people that recommend things they themselves do not own.”
— Glen Bradford, since always
Don't Take My Word for It
I'm a guy on the internet with his entire net worth on the line. That makes me motivated, not objective. Read the documents. Run the numbers. Form your own view. Here are the resources I'd start with:
Follow the Fanniegate Story
The biggest property rights case in American history, told by someone with everything on the line. Updates as they happen.
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Disclaimer
This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, including the risk of total loss. Glen Bradford is not a registered investment advisor. Positions disclosed here may change at any time without notice. Glen Bradford holds significant positions in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred securities and has a material financial interest in the outcome of GSE conservatorship. Some content on this site was generated or edited with AI assistance and may contain errors. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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