Aviation Safety in 2026
In March 2026, an Air Canada Express plane collided with a vehicle on the runway at LaGuardia Airport, killing the pilot and co-pilot.
This page honors the crew by looking at the data on aviation safety, what runway incursions are, and why every tragedy makes the system safer for everyone who flies after.
What Happened
On March 2026, Air Canada Express flight AC8646 was involved in a collision with a vehicle on the runway at LaGuardia Airport (LGA) in New York City. The pilot and co-pilot were killed.
The incident occurred on the airport surface, an area governed by ground control procedures, runway access protocols, and surface detection technology. Preliminary reports, as covered by CBC News and Reuters, indicate the aircraft collided with a ground vehicle that was present on the runway.
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) launched an investigation immediately. Full NTSB investigations typically take 12 to 24 months to complete, and the findings often lead to new safety mandates that reshape how airports operate.
The crew of flight AC8646 went to work that day to bring people home safely. This page is written with respect for them and their families.
By The Numbers
Aviation safety in context. The data is clear.
0.07
Air Deaths per Billion Passenger-Miles
Commercial aviation is the safest mode of mass transportation ever created.
7.3
Car Deaths per Billion Passenger-Miles
Driving is roughly 100 times more dangerous than flying per mile traveled.
100x
Safer to Fly Than Drive
Per passenger-mile, you are approximately 100 times safer in a commercial aircraft than in a car.
~40%
Decline in Fatal Accidents (2010s vs 2000s)
Each decade brings fewer commercial aviation fatalities worldwide. The trend is relentlessly downward.
Runway Incursions: The Hidden Risk
A runway incursion is any occurrence where an aircraft, vehicle, or person is incorrectly present on the protected area of a runway. They are one of the most dangerous types of aviation incidents because runways are where aircraft are moving at high speeds with limited ability to stop or maneuver.
The FAA categorizes runway incursions by severity. Category A is the worst: a collision or near-collision that required extreme action to avoid. Category D is the least severe, where someone was on the runway but there was no immediate safety consequence.
1,700+
Runway Incursions Per Year (US)
FAA-reported incidents across all US airports annually.
A / B / C / D
Four Severity Categories
Most incursions are Category C or D. Fatal collisions from runway incursions are extremely rare.
The fact that over 1,700 incursions happen annually sounds alarming until you consider the scale: US airports handle roughly 45,000 flights per day. The overwhelming majority of incursions are low-severity. But the rare Category A event can be catastrophic, which is why the FAA, NTSB, and airports invest heavily in ground detection technology and procedural safeguards.
Historical Runway Disasters
Every one of these tragedies led to safety improvements that protect millions of passengers today.
Tenerife, Canary Islands
583 lives lost
Two Boeing 747s collided on the runway at Los Rodeos Airport in dense fog. KLM Flight 4805 attempted takeoff while Pan Am Flight 1736 was still on the runway. It remains the deadliest accident in aviation history.
Safety legacy: Led to standardized phraseology in aviation communications, mandatory use of the word 'takeoff' only for actual clearance, and Crew Resource Management (CRM) training worldwide.
Taipei, Taiwan
83 lives lost
Singapore Airlines Flight 006, a Boeing 747, attempted takeoff from a closed runway at Chiang Kai-shek Airport during a typhoon. The aircraft struck construction equipment on the runway.
Safety legacy: Accelerated deployment of runway occupancy warning systems and improved airport signage protocols across Asia and globally.
Milan Linate, Italy
118 lives lost
Scandinavian Airlines Flight 686 collided with a Cessna Citation that had entered the active runway in dense fog. The MD-87 struck the smaller aircraft during takeoff and crashed into a baggage handling building.
Safety legacy: Prompted mandatory installation of ground radar at major European airports, overhauled airport ground movement procedures, and led to EU-wide runway safety reforms.
How Safety Improves After Tragedy
Aviation is the only transportation industry that investigates every fatal accident to its root cause and mandates changes.
TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System)
1993 (mandated)
Independently monitors airspace around aircraft and issues resolution advisories to avoid mid-air collisions. Pilots are trained to follow TCAS commands even over ATC instructions.
ASDE-X (Airport Surface Detection Equipment)
2003+
Ground radar system that tracks aircraft and vehicles on runways and taxiways. Alerts controllers when a potential collision is detected on the airport surface. Deployed at 35 major US airports.
RWSL (Runway Status Lights)
2012+
Embedded red lights on runways and taxiways that automatically illuminate to warn pilots when it is unsafe to enter, cross, or begin takeoff. Requires no controller action.
Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System (EGPWS)
2001+ (mandated)
Uses GPS terrain databases to provide advance warning of terrain hazards. Credited with virtually eliminating controlled flight into terrain for equipped aircraft.
Crew Resource Management (CRM)
1980s+
Training methodology that emphasizes communication, situational awareness, and shared decision-making in the cockpit. Born directly from the Tenerife disaster analysis.
This is the core principle of aviation safety: the system learns from every failure. Crash investigations produce findings. Findings become recommendations. Recommendations become regulations. Regulations become technology. Technology prevents the next accident. It is a feedback loop that has been running for decades, and it is the reason flying gets safer every year even as air traffic volumes increase.
Glen's Take
When a plane crash makes the news, it is natural to feel afraid. I fly regularly, and I understand the instinct to question whether it is safe to get on the next flight.
The data answers that question clearly. You are roughly 100 times safer per mile in a commercial aircraft than in a car. The drive to the airport is statistically the most dangerous part of your trip. That is not a talking point. It is the math.
What makes aviation remarkable is not that accidents never happen. It is that every accident triggers a system of investigation, accountability, and mandatory improvement that no other transportation industry matches. The crew of flight AC8646 deserves to be remembered. And the investigation into what happened will make the system safer for everyone who flies after them.
Tragedies like this are devastating. But the reason flying is so safe today is because every past tragedy was taken seriously, investigated thoroughly, and used to prevent the next one.
Get Glen's Musings
Occasional thoughts on AI, Claude, investing, and building things. Free. No spam.
Unsubscribe anytime. I respect your inbox more than Congress respects property rights.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened at LaGuardia Airport in March 2026?
Air Canada Express flight AC8646 collided with a vehicle on the runway at LaGuardia Airport in New York. The pilot and co-pilot were killed in the collision. The NTSB launched an investigation into the incident, which appears to have been a runway incursion involving a ground vehicle.
How safe is commercial flying compared to driving?
Commercial flying is roughly 100 times safer than driving per passenger-mile. Air travel has a fatality rate of approximately 0.07 deaths per billion passenger-miles, compared to 7.3 deaths per billion passenger-miles for automobile travel. Your most dangerous part of any flight is the drive to the airport.
What is a runway incursion?
A runway incursion is any occurrence at an airport where an aircraft, vehicle, or person is incorrectly present on the protected surface of a runway. The FAA tracks runway incursions across four severity categories, from A (most severe, near-collision or collision) to D (least severe, no immediate safety consequence). The FAA records over 1,700 runway incursions per year in the United States.
Are runway incursions becoming more common?
The total number of reported runway incursions has increased in recent years, partly because improved detection systems and reporting culture catch incidents that previously went unrecorded. However, the most severe categories (A and B) remain rare. The FAA and NTSB continuously work to reduce incursions through technology like ASDE-X ground radar and runway status lights.
What happens after a major aviation accident?
The NTSB conducts an independent investigation that can take 12 to 24 months. Every piece of wreckage, flight data, cockpit voice recording, ATC communication, maintenance record, and witness statement is analyzed. The investigation produces findings and safety recommendations that often become mandatory regulations. This feedback loop is the primary reason commercial aviation gets safer after every tragedy.
Keep Exploring
Every Time Strava Exposed Military Positions
Soldiers went for a jog and broadcast classified base locations. The complete timeline of fitness tracker OPSEC disasters.
Read moreGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
The 21-mile chokepoint through which 20% of the world's oil passes every day. One conflict away from global crisis.
Read moreInvestment Philosophy
How Glen thinks about markets, risk, and long-term compounding. Built over 12 years of activist investing.
Read more