Read the screenplay: FANNIEGATE — $7 trillion. 17 years. The biggest fraud in American capital markets.
Investing

Investment Philosophy

Concentrated. Convicted. Thesis-Driven.

26 series of junior preferred stock across Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 9 books documenting the thesis. 300+ articles. 13+ years of conviction. This is the investment approach of @DoNotLose.

26

Series Held

9

Books Written

300+

Articles

13+

Years Invested

“If you believe in American real estate, you have to believe in the system that finances it.”

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee over $7 trillion in American mortgages. The thesis is simple: these entities are too important to fail, too profitable to keep in conservatorship forever, and the shareholders who held through the darkness deserve recovery.

Core Principles

Five pillars of the investment approach

01

Concentrated Conviction

Don't diversify away your best ideas. When you find an asymmetric opportunity with a favorable risk-reward, size the position accordingly. Glen holds 26 series of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac junior preferred shares. Not a basket of 50 stocks. Not an index fund. Concentration is a feature, not a bug.

02

Preferred Stock as a Vehicle

Junior preferred shares offer unique characteristics: par value provides a floor, dividend rights provide income upon restoration, and the spread between market price and par value provides the upside. In the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thesis, preferred shares represent a claim on one of the largest recapitalization events in American financial history.

03

Thesis-Driven Investing

Every position starts with a thesis. Glen's core thesis: the Net Worth Sweep was unlawful, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be recapitalized, and junior preferred shareholders will be made whole or receive meaningful recovery. Nine books, 300+ articles, and 13+ years of research back this conviction.

04

Patience as a Competitive Advantage

Most investors can't wait 13 years. That's the edge. When the crowd sells out of frustration, the patient investor accumulates. Time horizon is the most undervalued factor in investing. The Fannie Mae thesis has tested every shareholder's patience. The ones still holding have the conviction and the position.

05

Understand What You Own

Read the prospectus. Read the PSPA amendments. Read the court filings. Read the FHFA director's statements. If you can't explain your position in detail, you don't understand it well enough to hold it through drawdowns. Glen has written 8 volumes of Fanniegate documenting every aspect of the thesis.

Key Positions

The core holdings — see full positions page for details

Influence Map

The investors and thinkers who shaped this philosophy

Risk Management

How to hold concentrated positions without losing sleep

Position Sizing Through Conviction

Size is proportional to conviction level and research depth. The Fannie Mae thesis has 13+ years of research, 9 published books, and 300+ articles behind it. That level of research justifies concentration.

Know Your Downside

Junior preferred shares can go to zero if the thesis is wrong. Glen understands and accepts this risk. The asymmetric upside (shares trading at a fraction of par value) compensates for the binary risk.

Track Record of the Thesis

Monitor court rulings, legislative developments, FHFA actions, and Treasury statements. Every data point either strengthens or weakens the thesis. Adjust conviction accordingly, not reflexively.

Time as a Risk Factor

The longer the thesis takes to play out, the higher the opportunity cost. Glen mitigates this by building other income streams (Cloud Nimbus, Delivery Hub, consulting) while maintaining the core position.

The Research

9 Books. 300+ Articles. 13+ Years.

Glen Bradford has published 9 books including the 8-volume Fanniegate series, which documents every aspect of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship, the Net Worth Sweep, the litigation, and the path to recapitalization.

On SeekingAlpha, he has written over 300 articles analyzing GSE quarterly earnings, court rulings, legislative developments, and the investment thesis. His blog contains 2,700+ posts spanning the full arc of the investment.

When Glen says he understands what he owns, this is what he means. The research isn't a weekend project. It's a decade-long body of work.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Glen Bradford's investment philosophy?

Glen Bradford practices concentrated value investing, primarily through junior preferred shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. His philosophy centers on deep research, thesis-driven conviction, patience as a competitive advantage, and understanding that asymmetric risk-reward opportunities require concentration, not diversification.

Why does Glen Bradford invest in Fannie Mae preferred stock?

Glen believes the Net Worth Sweep was unlawful and that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be recapitalized, restoring value to junior preferred shareholders. He holds 26 series of preferred shares and has written 8 volumes documenting the thesis in the Fanniegate book series.

What is the Fannie Mae recapitalization thesis?

The thesis holds that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were placed into conservatorship in 2008 and subjected to the Net Worth Sweep in 2012, will eventually be recapitalized and released from conservatorship. This would restore dividend rights and potentially return preferred shares to par value.

Who influences Glen Bradford's investing approach?

Glen's investment philosophy is influenced by Warren Buffett (concentrated long-term holding), Charlie Munger (mental models and anti-diversification), Benjamin Graham (margin of safety), Philip Fisher (deep qualitative research), and Tim Pagliara (shareholder advocacy and fighting for rights).

What is a junior preferred share?

A junior preferred share is a class of equity that sits between common stock and senior debt in the capital structure. It carries a fixed dividend rate, has a par value, and has priority over common stock in liquidation. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issued multiple series of junior preferred shares before conservatorship.

How does Glen Bradford manage risk with concentrated positions?

Glen manages risk through deep research (9 books, 300+ articles), understanding the binary nature of the thesis, monitoring legal and legislative developments, maintaining other income streams to reduce dependency on the investment thesis, and accepting that concentration requires higher conviction levels.

What is the Net Worth Sweep?

The Net Worth Sweep refers to the 2012 Third Amendment to the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement (PSPA), which changed the terms so that 100% of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's profits were swept to the US Treasury. Shareholders argue this was an unlawful taking that prevented the GSEs from building capital and exiting conservatorship.

How many articles has Glen Bradford written about Fannie Mae?

Glen Bradford has written over 300 articles on SeekingAlpha about Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the GSE thesis. He has also published 9 books, including the 8-volume Fanniegate series documenting the full history of the conservatorship and the case for shareholder recovery.

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Disclaimer: Glen Bradford holds positions in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities. This page describes his personal investment philosophy and is not financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Preferred stock investing carries significant risk, including the potential loss of all invested capital. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Some content was generated or edited with AI assistance.

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