300+
SA Articles
12+
Years GSE Research
26
Preferred Series
2,068
Trades Documented
Let's Get the Bad Stuff Out First
My options record is 1 win and 8 losses. That's not a typo. I am objectively terrible at options trading and I want you to know that before you read anything else on this site.
I lost $1M+ in a Chinese fraud (CCME) — months after publishing an article warning about Chinese stock fraud. The irony was not lost on me. I moved home, started over, and wrote a book about it.
My entire net worth is concentrated in a single bet on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac junior preferred shares. That is either brilliant or the dumbest thing anyone has ever done. I genuinely don't know which one yet.
I lead with my losses because anyone who only shows you their wins is selling something. I'm just sharing what I actually do.
Why I Publish Everything
Actual Positions
Every ticker and share count published at /positions. No “paper portfolios” here.
Documented Trades
4 years of Schwab data, parsed and public at /trading-analysis. 2,068 transactions.
Honest About Losses
My worst trades with pain meters at /worst-trades. 1W-8L on options. You deserve to know.
The Thesis in 60 Seconds
Fanniegate: Why I Bet Everything
In 2012, the U.S. Treasury imposed the Net Worth Sweep on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, redirecting all profits to the government and leaving shareholders with nothing. Multiple courts have ruled this was unconstitutional.
Since then, the GSEs have been profitable every single quarter and have sent over $300 billion to the Treasury — far exceeding the $191 billion bailout. They are the most profitable financial institutions in American history.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled support for recapitalization and release. If the preferred shares return to par value, the upside from current prices is significant. That's why my entire net worth is riding on 26 series of junior preferred stock.
I could be wrong. I have been before. But I've been studying this for 12 years, published 8 books on it, and I'm not going anywhere.
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Go Deeper
Everything is public. Pick a thread and pull it.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All investments carry risk, including total loss. I am not a registered investment advisor. Do your own research.
Recommended Resources
Tools & books I actually use and recommend
SeekingAlpha Premium
Quant ratings, earnings transcripts, and the stock analysis community where I published 300+ articles.
Try SeekingAlphaA Random Walk Down Wall Street
Burton Malkiel's classic case for index investing. The book that convinced millions to stop stock-picking.
View on AmazonThe Little Book of Common Sense Investing
John Bogle's manifesto on why low-cost index funds beat everything else. Straight from the founder of Vanguard.
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