Every few weeks someone on X tells me I'm a fearmonger, a permabull, or that I don't know what I'm talking about. Fair enough — let's look at the actual record.
I've been writing about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since 2014. I've been investing publicly since 2008. Here's what I said, when I said it, and what actually happened.
The Numbers
Not opinions. Not vibes. Numbers.
300+
SeekingAlpha Articles
9
Published Books
26
Preferred Series Held
12+
Years Invested
What I Said vs. What Happened
Predictions with dates. Outcomes with evidence. This is the part where you either agree or go quiet.
The Net Worth Sweep is unconstitutional and shareholders have standing to challenge it.
What Actually Happened
Collins v. Yellen (2021): Supreme Court ruled shareholders have standing. Multiple courts have agreed the Sweep raises constitutional issues. Lamberth ruling overturned.
The FHFA director structure is unconstitutional — a single director removable only for cause violates separation of powers.
What Actually Happened
Collins v. Yellen (2021): Supreme Court ruled the FHFA’s leadership structure was unconstitutional, exactly as argued.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would return to profitability.
What Actually Happened
Both companies have been profitable every single quarter since 2012. They have sent over $300 billion to the U.S. Treasury — far exceeding the $191 billion bailout.
Called GOOG and AAPL near the 2008 bottom — published "Two Appealing Buys" on SeekingAlpha.
What Actually Happened
Both stocks went on multi-year runs. AAPL became the most valuable company in the world. The S&P 500 5x’d from the bottom.
"A Bull is Born" — called the market bottom and said to buy while everyone was selling.
What Actually Happened
Published on SeekingAlpha at the market bottom. "I hope the idiots are SELL SELL SELL. I’ll BUY BUY BUY." The S&P went on to 5x.
Warned about Chinese stock fraud — "The China Surprise is Lurking."
What Actually Happened
Chinese reverse-merger fraud wave hit. Dozens of companies delisted. Glen saw it coming — then lost $1M+ in CCME anyway. He documents this loss openly.
Junior preferred shares (FNMAS, FMCKJ, etc.) have asymmetric upside — trading far below par value with a legal and political catalyst path.
What Actually Happened
Junior preferred shares have appreciated significantly from their lows. The endgame is now in sight with Treasury Secretary Bessent signaling recap and release.
Conservatorship will end and the GSEs will be recapitalized and released.
What Actually Happened
Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly signaled GSE recapitalization and release. FHFA is actively working on capital frameworks. This is no longer a fringe position.
Timing: Expected resolution sooner than it has taken.
What Actually Happened
It has taken longer than expected. A full decade of waiting. But the thesis hasn’t changed — only the timeline. Acknowledging this honestly.
What “Chicken Little” Gets Wrong
Let's get the story straight. Chicken Little said the sky was falling and nothing happened. I'm saying the opposite — the GSEs are profitable, conservatorship will end, and shareholders have rights. The facts support this. The courts support this. The Treasury Secretary supports this.
The actual Chicken Littles? They're the ones saying “it'll never happen” — ignoring a decade of court rulings, $300+ billion in Treasury payments, consistent profitability, and an administration that has publicly stated its intent to recap and release. That's the “sky is falling” crowd. Not me.
“If believing in property rights, reading court filings, and analyzing financial statements makes me Chicken Little, then I'm the best-informed chicken you've ever met.”
Skin in the Game
I'm not a commentator. I'm not an analyst writing reports from the sidelines. I own the shares. My entire net worth is in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac junior preferred stock — 26 series, including approximately 1% of both FMCCS and FMCCJ.
I don't write about things I don't own. I don't own things I haven't researched. Every word I've written is backed by real money on the line.
Still Here
I've been writing about this for over a decade. People have been telling me I'm wrong the entire time. The position is still open. The thesis hasn't changed. The facts have only gotten stronger.
Eight books. Three hundred articles. Every prediction dated. Every outcome documented. The people calling me Chicken Little haven't published a single one.
“If you think I'm wrong, tell me which fact is wrong. Not which feeling — which fact.”
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All investments carry risk, including total loss. I am not a registered investment advisor. Do your own research.
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