Why the Smartest People Make the Worst Predictions
In 2007, Steve Ballmer -- the CEO of Microsoft, one of the most powerful technology companies on Earth -- laughed on camera about the iPhone. "Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized? With a plan?" he said, barely containing himself. "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share."
Apple is now worth over $3 trillion. Microsoft's own phone efforts cost them billions in write-downs. That laughing clip has been viewed millions of times and will follow Ballmer for the rest of his life.
But here's the thing -- Ballmer wasn't stupid. He was applying expert-level logic from the wrong paradigm. That's the pattern on this entire list: brilliant people, world-class expertise, absolute confidence, and catastrophically wrong conclusions. The lesson isn't that experts are dumb. It's that certainty about the future is always misplaced.
25
Confident Predictions
0
That Were Right
200+
Years of Hubris
$T+
In Missed Opportunities
The Rankings
25 predictions. 25 failures. Infinite confidence. Zero foresight.
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”
30/30Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft · 2007
What Actually Happened
The iPhone made Apple the most valuable company in history -- worth over $3 trillion. The smartphone industry it created generates over $500 billion annually. Apple alone has sold over 2.3 billion iPhones. It is arguably the most successful consumer product ever manufactured.
How Wrong They Were
Ballmer said this while laughing on camera. The clip went viral and became the most famous bad tech prediction of the 21st century. Microsoft's own phone efforts (Windows Phone, Nokia acquisition) were catastrophic failures that cost the company billions. Ballmer eventually admitted the iPhone was revolutionary.
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
29/30Ken Olsen, founder & president of Digital Equipment Corporation · 1977
What Actually Happened
Personal computers became the most transformative consumer product in human history. Over 4.5 billion people now own one. The entire global economy runs on them. Your refrigerator has more computing power than NASA used to land on the moon.
How Wrong They Were
DEC, once the second-largest computer company in the world, was sold to Compaq for a fraction of its peak value in 1998. Olsen's quote became the single most cited example of tech industry hubris. He was running a computer company and couldn't see what computers would become.
“The internet will catastrophically collapse in 1996.”
29/30Robert Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet and founder of 3Com · 1995
What Actually Happened
The internet did not collapse. Instead, it became the backbone of the entire global economy. Over 5.4 billion people are now online. The internet generates trillions in annual economic activity. It has restructured every industry on Earth.
How Wrong They Were
Metcalfe was so confident he said he'd eat his words if wrong. In 1999, at a conference, he put his column in a blender with some liquid and literally drank it on stage. He kept his promise. The man who invented Ethernet -- a core internet technology -- thought the internet would die. He ate his words. Literally.
“The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon.”
29/30Sir John Eric Erichsen, Surgeon Extraordinary to Queen Victoria · 1873
What Actually Happened
Open-heart surgery is now routine. Brain surgery saves millions of lives. Organ transplants are standard care. Surgeons operate on fetuses inside the womb. Robotic surgery allows procedures through incisions smaller than a fingernail. We literally transplant faces.
How Wrong They Were
The Queen's own surgeon said the most important organs would FOREVER be beyond surgery. Within 50 years, surgeons were inside all three. Today, surgery on the brain, chest, and abdomen represents the majority of all surgical procedures worldwide. 'Forever' lasted about one generation.
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.”
28/30Attributed to Bill Gates, Microsoft co-founder · 1981
What Actually Happened
The average smartphone now has 6-8 GB of RAM -- roughly 10,000 times more than 640K. Gaming PCs ship with 32-64 GB. A single Chrome tab uses more memory than Gates supposedly thought would satisfy all of humanity's computing needs forever.
How Wrong They Were
Gates has repeatedly denied saying this, calling it an 'urban legend.' Whether he actually said it or not, it's become the most famous tech prediction quote in history. The irony is that Microsoft's own software -- Windows, Office, Teams -- is among the most memory-hungry on Earth.
“Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
28/30Darryl Zanuck, head of 20th Century Fox · 1946
What Actually Happened
Americans now watch an average of 4+ hours of TV per day. The television industry generates over $250 billion annually. Streaming alone is a $100+ billion market. People stare at screens (not plywood boxes, admittedly) for more hours per day than they sleep.
How Wrong They Were
The head of a movie studio failed to see that moving pictures on a screen in people's homes might be popular. Fox itself eventually became one of the biggest TV networks in the world. Zanuck was literally in the business of making people stare at screens and thought they'd get bored of it.
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty -- a fad.”
28/30President of Michigan Savings Bank, advising against investing in Ford Motor Co. · 1903
What Actually Happened
Ford Motor Company became one of the most valuable companies in American history. The automobile replaced the horse in under 30 years. Henry Ford's assembly line created the middle class. Today there are over 1.4 billion cars on Earth and roughly zero horses commuting to work.
How Wrong They Were
This banker actively discouraged people from investing in Ford. Anyone who listened missed out on one of the greatest investment opportunities of the 20th century. The horse and buggy industry was obliterated within a generation. Michigan, ironically, became the car capital of the world.
“Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.”
28/30Dr. Dionysius Lardner, Professor of Natural Philosophy at University College London · 1830
What Actually Happened
Trains now travel at over 350 mph (Japan's maglev). High-speed rail connects entire continents. Nobody has ever suffocated from going fast on a train. Passengers breathe perfectly fine while traveling at speeds Lardner couldn't have imagined, often while eating overpriced sandwiches.
How Wrong They Were
Lardner was a respected scientist who genuinely believed the human body could not survive speeds above 30 mph. He also predicted that steamships could never cross the Atlantic. They did, repeatedly, within his lifetime. He was wrong about transportation at a fundamental level.
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”
28/30Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society · 1895
What Actually Happened
The Wright Brothers flew at Kitty Hawk just 8 years later. Today, over 100,000 flights take off daily worldwide. A Boeing 747 weighs 975,000 pounds fully loaded. Airplanes have connected every corner of the globe and shrunk the world from months to hours.
How Wrong They Were
Lord Kelvin was one of the most accomplished physicists in history -- the Kelvin temperature scale is named after him. He was the president of the most prestigious scientific body on Earth. He said flight was impossible 8 years before two bicycle mechanics from Ohio proved him wrong in a field.
“Space travel is utter bilge.”
28/30Sir Richard van der Riet Woolley, Astronomer Royal of Britain · 1956
What Actually Happened
Sputnik launched the very next year. Yuri Gagarin orbited Earth in 1961. Humans walked on the moon in 1969. The International Space Station has been continuously occupied since 2000. SpaceX lands rockets vertically and is planning Mars missions. Private citizens have gone to space for fun.
How Wrong They Were
The Astronomer Royal -- Britain's top space scientist -- called space travel 'bilge' one year before Sputnik. His job was literally to study the cosmos. By the time he retired, humans had walked on the moon. The fastest reversal in the history of scientific predictions.
“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”
27/30Albert Einstein · 1934
What Actually Happened
Nuclear energy now provides about 10% of the world's electricity. Nuclear weapons ended World War II. Einstein himself later wrote the famous letter to Roosevelt warning about the atomic bomb -- based on the very nuclear energy he said would never be obtainable.
How Wrong They Were
When the smartest person who ever lived gets one wrong, you know prediction is hard. Einstein's own equation -- E=mc² -- was the theoretical foundation for nuclear energy. He literally provided the math for the thing he said was impossible, then had to reverse his position when it turned out the math worked.
“Bitcoin is rat poison squared.”
27/30Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway · 2018
What Actually Happened
Bitcoin went from around $8,000 when Buffett said this to over $100,000. Its market cap exceeded $2 trillion. Institutional adoption accelerated. Bitcoin ETFs were approved. Even some banks started offering crypto custody.
How Wrong They Were
Look -- Glen agrees with Buffett on this one. Bitcoin has no cash flows, no earnings, no dividends, no intrinsic value, and no productive use case. It's speculative digital nothing. But in terms of the price prediction? Buffett has been spectacularly wrong for years. The Oracle of Omaha's biggest blind spot, and Glen's too. At least they're wrong together.
“Rock 'n' roll will be gone by June.”
27/30Variety magazine · 1955
What Actually Happened
Rock and roll became the dominant popular music genre for the next 50+ years. It spawned Elvis, The Beatles, Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, Queen, Nirvana, and thousands more. The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame has 383 inductees. The genre generated hundreds of billions in revenue.
How Wrong They Were
They gave it a few months. It lasted half a century as the dominant genre and continues to influence virtually all popular music. 'Gone by June' might be the worst timeline prediction in entertainment history. Rock and roll outlived Variety's relevance.
“There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, radio, or television service inside the United States.”
27/30T. Craven, FCC Commissioner · 1961
What Actually Happened
There are now over 7,500 active satellites orbiting Earth. Satellite communications enable GPS, weather forecasting, internet everywhere, and global television. SpaceX's Starlink alone has launched 6,000+ satellites. The entire modern world depends on space-based communications.
How Wrong They Were
The FCC -- the government body literally responsible for regulating communications -- said communications satellites wouldn't work for communications. It's the equivalent of the Secretary of Transportation saying highways will never be used for driving. This was his actual job.
“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.”
27/30Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer of the British Post Office · 1878
What Actually Happened
There are now more mobile phone subscriptions on Earth than there are people. The British Post Office eventually became BT Group, one of the largest telecommunications companies in the world. Messenger boys are not a significant part of the modern communications infrastructure.
How Wrong They Were
The man in charge of British communications chose messenger boys over the telephone. This is the equivalent of choosing a horse over a jet engine. The British Empire, which prided itself on global communication, almost missed the most important communication technology since the printing press.
“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
27/30Clifford Stoll, Newsweek columnist and astronomer · 1995
What Actually Happened
Stoll wrote a famous Newsweek article arguing that online databases would never replace daily newspapers, that e-commerce was a fantasy, that no one would read books on screens, and that online communities were no substitute for real life. Every single prediction was wrong.
How Wrong They Were
Stoll specifically mocked the idea of buying airline tickets online, reading newspapers digitally, and e-books. Amazon launched the same year. Online news killed newspapers. Kindles sell millions. His article is now taught in journalism schools as the ultimate cautionary tale about dismissing technology.
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
27/30Attributed to Thomas Watson, president of IBM · 1943
What Actually Happened
There are now over 4.5 billion personal computers, tablets, and smartphones in use worldwide -- plus billions more embedded systems, servers, and IoT devices. IBM itself sold millions of PCs before exiting the consumer market. The computer became the most ubiquitous machine in human history.
How Wrong They Were
Watson (or whoever said it -- IBM disputes the attribution) thought five would cover global demand. The actual number is measured in billions. That's off by a factor of roughly one billion. Even if you account for the fact that 1943 computers filled entire rooms, the failure of imagination is staggering.
“Our nuclear energy program has been designed to make electricity too cheap to meter.”
27/30Lewis Strauss, Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission · 1954
What Actually Happened
Nuclear power plants cost $6-12 billion each to build and take 10-20 years to construct. Electricity from nuclear is among the most expensive to produce when accounting for full lifecycle costs. The average American electricity bill has increased every single decade since 1954.
How Wrong They Were
Not only is nuclear electricity not free, it's one of the most expensive forms of energy generation. Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima made the public terrified of it. The promise of abundant cheap energy became a cautionary tale about techno-optimism outrunning reality.
“No woman in my lifetime will be Prime Minister.”
26/30Margaret Thatcher · 1969
What Actually Happened
Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 1979 -- just 10 years later. She served for 11 years, the longest-serving British PM of the 20th century. She reshaped British politics, economics, and foreign policy. She was called the Iron Lady.
How Wrong They Were
This is the only prediction on this list where the person who made it also proved it wrong. Thatcher said no woman could do it, then did it herself. She didn't just become PM -- she became one of the most consequential PMs in British history. Self-defeating prophecy at its finest.
“No one will pay for a movie delivered to their home when they can go to the theater.”
26/30Various Hollywood executives opposing home video · 1976
What Actually Happened
Home video became a bigger market than theaters. Then streaming obliterated physical media. Netflix alone has over 260 million subscribers. Disney+, HBO Max, Prime Video, and others generate tens of billions annually. Most people now watch new movies at home, not in theaters.
How Wrong They Were
Hollywood tried to kill the VCR (the famous Sony Betamax case went to the Supreme Court). Jack Valenti, head of the MPAA, said 'the VCR is to the American film producer as the Boston Strangler is to the woman home alone.' Home video saved Hollywood's finances, and streaming reshaped it entirely.
“X-rays will prove to be a hoax.”
26/30Lord Kelvin (again), President of the Royal Society · 1900
What Actually Happened
X-rays became the foundation of modern diagnostic medicine. Every hospital on Earth has X-ray machines. CT scans, which are advanced X-ray technology, save millions of lives annually. Kelvin was already wrong about flight -- and now he was wrong about X-rays too.
How Wrong They Were
Lord Kelvin appears twice on this list. The man who has a temperature scale named after him was confidently wrong about both flight AND X-rays. X-rays had already been demonstrated, photographed, and published in scientific journals when Kelvin called them a hoax. He could have just... looked at the evidence.
“Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure.”
25/30Henry Morton, president of Stevens Institute of Technology, on Edison's light bulb · 1879
What Actually Happened
Edison's light bulb illuminated the world. Electric lighting became universal within decades. The light bulb is literally the universal symbol for ideas and innovation. Edison's company became General Electric, one of the largest corporations in history.
How Wrong They Were
Morton was the president of a technology institute. He watched Edison's demonstration and declared it a failure -- on the same day it succeeded. Everyone acquainted with the subject DID recognize it -- as one of the most important inventions in human history. Morton became a footnote; Edison became a legend.
“The subscription model for music will never work. People want to own their music.”
24/30Steve Jobs, Apple CEO · 2003
What Actually Happened
Spotify has over 600 million users. Apple Music (yes, Apple's own streaming service) has over 100 million subscribers. Music downloads are essentially dead. Streaming accounts for 84% of all recorded music revenue. Nobody under 30 has ever 'owned' a song.
How Wrong They Were
Jobs was right that people loved buying songs on iTunes -- for about a decade. Then his own company launched Apple Music, a subscription service, because even Apple realized the future was streaming. Jobs was the greatest tech visionary of his generation and still got this one wrong.
“Email is a totally unsociable thing. It will never catch on.”
24/30Various technology commentators · 1989
What Actually Happened
Over 350 billion emails are sent every single day. Email is the backbone of business communication worldwide. Every job application, every invoice, every password reset, every newsletter -- email is the connective tissue of the digital economy. It is the most used communication tool in history.
How Wrong They Were
Email was called impersonal, unnecessary, and antisocial. Today, the average office worker receives 121 emails per day. The question isn't whether email caught on -- it's whether anyone can survive without it. 'Reply All' has caused more office drama than every water cooler combined.
“Social media is a fad. It will pass within a few years.”
24/30Various media analysts and business commentators · 2008
What Actually Happened
Social media now has over 4.9 billion users -- more than half the planet. Facebook (Meta) is worth over $1.5 trillion. Social media has influenced elections, toppled governments, created new industries, and fundamentally changed human communication. It is the dominant cultural force of the 21st century.
How Wrong They Were
Calling social media a fad was the 2008 equivalent of calling television a fad in 1946 or rock and roll a fad in 1955. The pattern is always the same: established gatekeepers dismiss new media because it threatens their position. Social media didn't pass. Traditional media did.
Glen's Take: Prediction Humility as an Investor
I ran a hedge fund. I wrote hundreds of articles predicting stock movements. I was publicly, confidently wrong more times than I can count. And I still make predictions every day -- because that's what investing is.
But this list has taught me something: the people who get predictions the most catastrophically wrong aren't the idiots. They're the experts. Lord Kelvin knew more physics than anyone alive and said flight was impossible. Ballmer knew more about the phone market than almost anyone and laughed at the iPhone. The Astronomer Royal called space travel "bilge" one year before Sputnik.
The pattern is always the same: deep expertise in the current paradigm creates blindness to the next one. That's the innovator's dilemma, and it applies to investing just as much as technology. Every time I'm certain about a stock, I think about Lord Kelvin confidently declaring flight impossible while two bicycle mechanics were building a plane in Ohio.
My rule now: have strong opinions, weakly held. Make your best call, but stay ready to be wrong. Because if Einstein could be wrong about nuclear energy, and Buffett could be wrong about Bitcoin (and I agree with him, by the way -- but the price doesn't care about our opinions), then you and I can definitely be wrong about whatever we're sure about right now.
Prediction humility isn't weakness. It's the only rational position in a world this complex.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most famously wrong prediction in history?
Ken Olsen's 1977 statement that 'there is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home' is widely considered the most famously wrong technology prediction ever made. Olsen was the founder and president of Digital Equipment Corporation, the second-largest computer company in the world at the time. He was in the computer business and couldn't see what computers would become. DEC was eventually sold for a fraction of its peak value.
Did Bill Gates really say '640K ought to be enough for anybody'?
Gates has repeatedly denied making this statement, calling it an 'urban legend.' There is no confirmed recording or transcript of him saying it. However, the quote has become so ingrained in tech culture that it's essentially inseparable from his legacy. Whether or not he actually said it, the sentiment reflected a real limitation in early PC architecture that was quickly outgrown.
Why do smart people make such terrible predictions?
Experts tend to extrapolate from current trends rather than anticipating paradigm shifts. Lord Kelvin understood 1895 physics perfectly but couldn't imagine 1903 physics. Ballmer understood 2007 smartphones perfectly but couldn't see what the iPhone would become. The pattern is called 'the innovator's dilemma' -- incumbents are so invested in the current paradigm that they literally cannot see the next one. Expertise becomes a cage.
What does this have to do with investing?
Everything. Every year, respected analysts predict market crashes that don't happen, or fail to predict the ones that do. The lesson is prediction humility -- knowing what you don't know. As an investor, Glen has learned that the most dangerous words in finance are 'this will never work.' The best investors don't predict the future; they position for multiple outcomes and stay humble about what they can't foresee.
Why did Steve Ballmer laugh at the iPhone?
Ballmer evaluated the iPhone using Microsoft's existing framework: enterprise contracts, keyboard-based productivity, and carrier relationships. By those metrics, a $500 phone with no keyboard and no enterprise features looked ridiculous. He was applying 2006 logic to a 2007 product. The iPhone didn't compete in Microsoft's category -- it created a new one. Ballmer's famous laughing clip has been viewed millions of times.
Are there bad predictions being made right now that will look foolish in 10 years?
Almost certainly. AI skeptics saying 'it's just autocomplete,' fusion energy doubters, people dismissing lab-grown meat, critics of autonomous vehicles -- some of these positions will age very badly. The challenge is that some skeptics will also be vindicated. The lesson isn't that all skepticism is wrong; it's that absolute certainty about the future is always misplaced.
Does Glen Bradford agree with any of these predictions?
Glen is open about agreeing with Buffett on Bitcoin -- he thinks crypto has no intrinsic value and is mostly speculative mania. He's been wrong about the price, though, which is kind of the whole point of this page. Prediction is hard. Even when you have solid reasoning, the market (and the world) can stay 'wrong' longer than you can stay solvent. Humility is the only rational position.
What's the lesson for everyday decision-making?
When someone tells you something is impossible, ask yourself: are they an expert in the current paradigm or the next one? The people who said flight was impossible were experts in 1895 physics. The people who said the iPhone would fail were experts in 2006 phones. Expertise in the present is not the same as foresight about the future. Stay curious, stay humble, and never say never.
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