Fooled by Randomness

Taleb's first major book examines how humans systematically confuse luck with skill, especially in financial markets. A trader who makes money for five consecutive years is celebrated as a genius — until year six wipes him out and reveals he was simply taking hidden risks. Fooled by Randomness is the most important book about survivorship bias, narrative fallacy, and the role of chance in business and investing. It laid the groundwork for The Black Swan and Antifragile, and it remains the most accessible entry point into Taleb's thinking.