Decoding Pagliara's Portfolio DNA
12 Years of SEC Filings. 48 Quarterly Snapshots. One Investment Fingerprint.
Every institutional investor managing over $100M must disclose their equity holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. Tim Pagliara's CapWealth Advisors (CIK: 0001531809) has filed 48 of them since 2013. Here's what they reveal about how he thinks, what he values, and what he might be interested in next.
$1.9B
Total AUM
$1.46B
13F Value
121
Positions
3.7x
12yr Growth
22.9%
1yr Return
Current Top 10 Holdings
As of Q3 2025 filing (September 30, 2025) · Source: SEC EDGAR 13F-HR
| # | Ticker | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | 5.28% |
| 2 | WMB | 4.45% |
| 3 | MSFT | 4.29% |
| 4 | BRK-B | 3.58% |
| 5 | GLW | 3.49% |
| 6 | IBM | 3.04% |
| 7 | LUMN | 3.03% |
| 8 | GE | 2.75% |
| 9 | TSM | 2.74% |
| 10 | CVX | 2.68% |
Notable Positions Beyond the Top 10
The positions that tell you the most about how Pagliara thinks
Fannie Mae Preferred (various series)
Became top holding in Q3-Q4 2025 restatement. Multi-series preferred position — the activist bet.
Lumen Technologies Call Options
500,000 contracts, $3.1M notional. Leveraged upside bet on top of the equity position.
AT&T
Added 502,555 shares in Q3 2025 — a 3,242% increase. Classic Pagliara contrarian entry.
FB Financial
New $18.1M position in Q3 2025. Local Nashville bank — Tim knows the management.
UnitedHealth Group
+$15.5M in Q3 2025. Healthcare quality at scale.
Sector Allocation
Portfolio Evolution: Five Eras
How CapWealth's portfolio has transformed across 12 years and 48 quarterly filings
The LVLT & BAC Foundation
Concentrated telecom infrastructure (Level 3) + bank recovery (Bank of America) + early FNMA preferred activist position. High conviction, fewer than 100 core positions.
The FNMA Conviction Era
Fannie Mae preferreds became the #1 holding. Level 3 merged into CenturyLink (now Lumen). This is the peak activist period — Investors Unite, lawsuits, lobbying. Tim was putting client money where his convictions were.
The COVID Pivot & Tech Embrace
Rotated into Big Tech during COVID selloff. Apple and Microsoft became top holdings. Maintained FNMA preferred conviction. Added Starwood Property Trust (STWD) for yield. AUM nearly doubled as markets recovered.
The Berkshire Anchor
Berkshire Hathaway became the #1 holding — the ultimate quality anchor. Added energy (Chevron, Williams Companies). Reduced tech concentration. Defensive posture during rate hikes. Beat the SEC in November 2022.
The AI & Infrastructure Pivot
Palantir became #1 — an AI/defense play. Corning and Taiwan Semi added for fiber/semiconductor infrastructure. Massive LUMN position (5.5M shares + 500K call options). FNMA preferreds returned as top holding in Q3-Q4 2025 restatement. Portfolio value hit $1.46B.
Behavioral Fingerprint
Six patterns that define how Pagliara selects and sizes investments
High-Conviction Concentrator
Top 10 holdings = 57.6% of portfolio. Pagliara doesn't diversify for diversification's sake. When he has conviction, he sizes up.
Evidence: LUMN: 5.5M shares + 500K call options. FNMA preferreds: multiple series as top holding. PLTR: $58.5M position.
Infrastructure Obsessed
A consistent thread across every era: telecom pipes, energy pipelines, fiber optics, semiconductors. Pagliara bets on the physical and digital infrastructure that the economy runs on.
Evidence: LVLT→LUMN (2013–present), WMB (2014–present), GLW fiber play, TSM semiconductor, GE Aerospace.
Contrarian Entry Points
Buys beaten-down names with identifiable catalysts. Doesn't bottom-tick — waits for the thesis to crystallize, then goes big.
Evidence: FNMA preferreds during conservatorship. LUMN after 90% decline. AT&T +3,242% position increase. BAC during financial crisis recovery.
Quality Anchoring
Always maintains a core of blue-chip quality names as portfolio ballast. These aren't the exciting positions — they're the sleep-at-night positions.
Evidence: BRK-B, MSFT, AAPL, JNJ, CVX — always somewhere in the top 20.
Activist Catalyst Seeker
Unique among wealth managers: Pagliara doesn't just buy and hold. He buys, advocates, litigates, and creates the catalysts himself.
Evidence: FNMA: founded Investors Unite, filed lawsuits, wrote a book, lobbied Congress. He IS the catalyst.
Options for Conviction
Uses call options selectively to lever up on highest-conviction ideas. Not speculation — amplification of existing fundamental bets.
Evidence: LUMN call options: 500K contracts on top of 5.5M share equity position.
Forward-Looking Analysis
What Would Pagliara Buy Next?
Based on 12 years of behavioral patterns, sector preferences, valuation style, and recent portfolio momentum — these are the categories and characteristics that match CapWealth's historical investment DNA. This is pattern analysis, not a recommendation.
Infrastructure & Connectivity
Pagliara's longest-running theme. He bet on Level 3's fiber network in 2013, rode it through the CenturyLink merger, and now holds 5.5M shares of Lumen + call options. Corning (fiber glass) and TSM (chips) extend this thesis. The pattern says he's looking for more companies that build or enable digital/physical infrastructure.
Digital infrastructure plays
Data centers, fiber, 5G tower companies — anything with recurring revenue from physical network assets
Energy infrastructure MLPs
WMB has been top-5 for years. Pipeline/midstream companies with similar yield + growth profiles
Semiconductor equipment
TSM bet extends naturally to the companies supplying the fabs
Contrarian Financial Recovery
Pagliara's FNMA thesis is the signature example: buy when everyone else has given up, create the catalyst yourself. He also bought BAC heavily during the post-crisis recovery. The pattern shows he looks for financial institutions trading below intrinsic value due to regulatory/political headwinds that are shifting.
Regional banks post-2023 crisis
After SVB/First Republic, many quality regionals trade at depressed valuations with improving fundamentals
GSE-adjacent plays
If FNMA/FMCC recap happens, mortgage insurers, servicers, and originators all benefit
Misunderstood financials
Companies where the market narrative is worse than the actual balance sheet — Tim's bread and butter
AI & Defense Convergence
PLTR as the #1 holding signals a new theme: companies at the intersection of AI and national security. GE Aerospace in the top 10 reinforces the defense angle. This is a newer addition to the portfolio DNA (2024+) but it's already the largest single position.
Defense tech platforms
Companies applying AI/ML to defense and intelligence — the PLTR thesis extends to the ecosystem
Aerospace supply chain
GE Aerospace position suggests interest in companies feeding the defense/commercial aviation upcycle
Government IT modernization
Federal agencies digitizing legacy systems — a multi-decade tailwind
Yield + Catalyst Hybrids
Pagliara doesn't just buy yield — he buys yield where there's an identifiable catalyst for capital appreciation. AT&T (+3,242% increase) is the latest example: depressed valuation, solid dividend, restructuring catalyst. Williams Companies combines pipeline yield with natural gas demand growth.
Beaten-down dividend aristocrats
Companies with 10+ years of dividend growth that are temporarily out of favor — the T playbook
Restructuring stories with income
Companies spinning off divisions, cutting costs, or simplifying structure while maintaining dividends
Preferred securities with catalysts
The FNMA preferred thesis applied elsewhere — preferred shares with identifiable paths to par
Complete Filing History
Every quarterly 13F filing from Q4 2013 to Q4 2025 · $397M (Q4 2013) → $1.46B (Q4 2025)
| Quarter | Value | Top Holding |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.46B | FNMAS Preferreds |
| Q3 2025 | $1.45B | FNMAS Preferreds |
| Q2 2025 | $1.02B | PLTR |
| Q1 2025 | $924M | BRK-B |
| Q4 2024 | $912M | WMB |
| Q3 2024 | $920M | BRK-B |
| Q2 2024 | $792M | BRK-B |
| Q1 2024 | $891M | BRK-B |
| Q4 2023 | $820M | BRK-B |
| Q3 2023 | $779M | BRK-B |
| Q2 2023 | $820M | BRK-B |
| Q1 2023 | $802M | BRK-B |
| Q4 2022 | $851M | BRK-B |
| Q3 2022 | $758M | AAPL |
| Q2 2022 | $829M | AAPL |
| Q1 2022 | $977M | AAPL |
| Q4 2021 | $983M | BAC |
| Q3 2021 | $913M | MSFT |
| Q2 2021 | $921M | MSFT |
| Q1 2021 | $879M | BAC |
| Q4 2020 | $839M | AAPL |
| Q3 2020 | $749M | MSFT |
| Q2 2020 | $708M | MSFT |
| Q1 2020 | $567M | AAPL |
| Q4 2019 | $795M | FNMAS |
| Q3 2019 | $752M | FNMAS |
| Q2 2019 | $699M | FNMAS |
| Q1 2019 | $652M | FNMAS |
| Q4 2018 | $569M | BAC |
| Q3 2018 | $609M | LUMN |
| Q2 2018 | $558M | BAC |
| Q1 2018 | $517M | BAC |
| Q4 2017 | $556M | BAC |
| Q3 2017 | $521M | BAC |
| Q2 2017 | $499M | LVLT |
| Q1 2017 | $488M | LVLT |
| Q4 2016 | $462M | LVLT |
| Q4 2013 | $397M | FNMAS |
What's Possible
This Analysis Is Just the Beginning
What you see above is a static proof-of-concept — a manually compiled analysis of CapWealth's public 13F filings. But the system that generated these insights can be dramatically expanded. Here are two levels of what's possible:
Dynamic API-Powered Analysis
- ▸Real-time SEC EDGAR integration — automatically pulls new 13F filings within hours of publication, no manual updates
- ▸Price enrichment — joins historical price data at filing dates to calculate actual entry prices, P/E at purchase, and discount-to-52wk-high patterns
- ▸Automated behavioral scoring — quantitative style box (value/growth/blend, large/mid/small), factor exposures, and sector drift tracking
- ▸Stock screener output — scans the full equity universe and ranks current opportunities by “Pagliara Score” based on historical buying patterns
- ▸Quarter-over-quarter diff engine — visual comparisons of what changed, what was added, what was trimmed, with conviction scoring
Full Investor Intelligence Platform
- ▸Multi-manager analysis — apply the same behavioral fingerprinting to any of the 5,000+ 13F filers (Buffett, Ackman, Druckenmiller, Einhorn, etc.)
- ▸Overlap & divergence maps — which positions do multiple top investors share? Where do they disagree? Consensus vs. contrarian views
- ▸Filing alert system — email/push notifications when new 13Fs are filed, with automatic diff analysis: “Pagliara just added 500K shares of XYZ”
- ▸Client-facing dashboards — white-label versions for wealth managers to show clients how their portfolio compares to top investors
- ▸AI-powered narrative generation — natural language summaries explaining the “why” behind each position change, not just the numbers
Interested in Building This?
This system can be built for any investor with a 13F filing history. If you're a wealth manager, fund manager, or investor who wants this kind of analysis for your own portfolio or your competitors' — let's talk.
Methodology & Data Sources
Data source: All holdings data is derived from SEC Form 13F-HR filings by CapWealth Advisors, LLC (CIK: 0001531809), publicly available through the SEC's EDGAR database. Supplementary data sourced from 13f.info, Fintool, and AUM13F.
Limitations: 13F filings are reported 45 days after quarter-end, so data always represents a lagged snapshot. Filings only disclose long equity and options positions — shorts, bonds, private investments, and non-US securities are excluded. CapWealth manages client portfolios with diverse mandates, so disclosed positions reflect aggregated client holdings, not necessarily Tim Pagliara's personal investment views.
Behavioral analysis: The “fingerprint” and forward-looking analysis are qualitative pattern observations derived from 12 years of filing history. They are not quantitative models, backtested strategies, or investment recommendations.
Last updated: March 2026 (based on Q4 2025 filing restated 2/6/2026).
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Read moreDisclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available SEC 13F filings and reflects the author's interpretation of historical patterns. It is not endorsed by Tim Pagliara, CapWealth Advisors, or any affiliated entity. The forward-looking “predicted interests” section represents pattern-based speculation, not insider knowledge or investment recommendations. Glen Bradford holds positions in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities. This is not financial or investment advice. Past portfolio patterns do not predict future investment decisions. Some content was generated or edited with AI assistance.