What is the average annual return of the S&P 500?

From 1928 to 2025, the S&P 500 has returned an average of approximately 9.8% per year (nominal, including dividends reinvested). Adjusted for inflation, the real return is about 6.5-7.0% per year. This includes the Great Depression, World Wars, financial crises, and pandemics. The key takeaway: despite everything that has gone wrong over nearly a century, the stock market has consistently rewarded long-term investors.

How often does the stock market go up in a year?

The S&P 500 has been positive in approximately 73% of calendar years since 1928. That means roughly 3 out of every 4 years, the market goes up. Even more striking: the average positive year gains about 21%, while the average negative year loses about 13%. The math is heavily in your favor if you stay invested.

What were the worst years in stock market history?

The five worst calendar years for the S&P 500 were: 1931 (-43.3%), 2008 (-37.0%), 1937 (-35.0%), 1974 (-26.5%), and 1930 (-24.9%). Notice a pattern? Every single one of these was followed by a strong recovery within 1-3 years. The worst thing you can do is sell during a crash — historically, the best days in the market happen within weeks of the worst days.

What were the best years in stock market history?

The five best years were: 1933 (+54.0%), 1954 (+52.6%), 1935 (+47.7%), 1928 (+43.6%), and 1958 (+43.4%). Many of the best years came immediately after devastating crashes — 1933 followed the Depression, 1954 came after the Korean War recession. This is why selling in a panic is so destructive: you almost always miss the recovery.

Should I try to time the market?

No. Study after study shows that market timing destroys returns. Missing just the 10 best trading days over a 20-year period can cut your total return by more than half. The best strategy for most investors is to invest consistently through dollar-cost averaging, ignore short-term volatility, and let compound interest work over decades. As Peter Lynch said: 'Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.'

Interactive Timeline

Every S&P 500 Year Since 1928

98 years of stock market history. The market goes up about 73% of the time. The other 27% is when money is made by those brave enough to buy. Hover over any bar for details.

Years Covered

Positive Years

72%

71 of 98

Average Return

+11.9%

Best Year

1933

+54.0%

Worst Year

1931

-43.3%

192819772025

📊

What 98 Years of Data Tells Us

I've stared at this chart more times than I'd like to admit. After running a hedge fund and writing about markets for over a decade, here's what nearly a century of data screams at you:

The market goes up most of the time. 73% of years are positive. The average up year (+21%) is bigger than the average down year (-13%). The math is overwhelmingly in your favor if you just... stay in.

The worst years are followed by the best years. 1931 (-43%) was followed by 1933 (+54%). 1974 (-27%) was followed by 1975 (+37%). 2008 (-37%) was followed by 2009 (+27%). Every. Single. Time. The people who sold at the bottom missed the biggest rallies in history.

Nobody can time this consistently. Not me, not your financial advisor, not the talking heads on CNBC. $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in 1928 would be worth over $80 million today. The only requirement was doing absolutely nothing.

— Glen Bradford, who has made and lost money trying to be smarter than the market

Average Return by Decade

1920s

1/2 positive+17.6%

1930s

4/10 positive+5.4%

1940s

7/10 positive+10.3%

1950s

8/10 positive+20.8%

1960s

7/10 positive+8.7%

1970s

7/10 positive+7.5%

1980s

9/10 positive+18.2%

1990s

9/10 positive+19.0%

2000s

6/10 positive+1.2%

2010s

9/10 positive+14.2%

2020s

4/6 positive+12.7%

Complete Year-by-Year Data

Year	Return	Notable Event
1928	+43.6%	The Roaring Twenties peaked. Everyone was a genius stock picker — sound familiar?
1929	-8.4%	Black Tuesday. The crash that launched a thousand regulations.
1930	-24.9%	The Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 8.7%.
1931	-43.3%	The worst year in S&P 500 history. Bank failures everywhere.
1932	-8.2%	Bottom of the Depression. Dow hits 41. People sold everything.
1933	+54.0%	Best year ever. FDR's New Deal restored confidence. Those who stayed in were rewarded.
1934	-1.4%	—
1935	+47.7%	Second-best year ever. The market doesn't care about your feelings.
1936	+33.9%	—
1937	-35.0%	Roosevelt Recession. The Fed tightened too early — a mistake they'd repeat.
1938	+31.1%	—
1939	-0.4%	WWII begins in Europe. Markets shrug.
1940	-9.8%	—
1941	-11.6%	Pearl Harbor. America enters WWII.
1942	+20.3%	Markets rallied despite (because of?) wartime production boom.
1943	+25.9%	—
1944	+19.7%	—
1945	+36.4%	WWII ends. The baby boom and American economic dominance begin.
1946	-8.1%	—
1947	+5.7%	—
1948	+5.5%	—
1949	+18.8%	—
1950	+31.7%	Post-war boom. TVs enter American homes. Consumerism takes off.
1951	+24.0%	—
1952	+18.4%	—
1953	-1.0%	—
1954	+52.6%	Dow finally surpasses its 1929 peak. Only took 25 years.
1955	+31.6%	—
1956	+6.6%	—
1957	-10.8%	—
1958	+43.4%	NASA founded. Space race begins. Markets blast off too.
1959	+12.0%	—
1960	+0.5%	—
1961	+26.9%	JFK inaugurated. 'Ask not what your country can do for you.'
1962	-8.7%	Cuban Missile Crisis. Markets dropped but recovered quickly.
1963	+22.8%	—
1964	+16.5%	—
1965	+12.5%	—
1966	-10.1%	—
1967	+24.0%	—
1968	+11.1%	—
1969	-8.5%	Moon landing didn't help stocks. The market has zero chill.
1970	+4.0%	—
1971	+14.3%	Nixon ends the gold standard. Dollar floats freely.
1972	+19.0%	—
1973	-14.7%	Oil embargo. Stagflation. The 'Nifty Fifty' bubble bursts.
1974	-26.5%	Worst bear market since the Depression. Watergate. Nixon resigns.
1975	+37.2%	Massive rebound — those who panic-sold in '74 missed it all.
1976	+23.8%	—
1977	-7.2%	—
1978	+6.6%	—
1979	+18.4%	Inflation hits 11%. Iran hostage crisis. Volcker takes over the Fed.
1980	+32.4%	Gold hits $850. Fed funds rate hits 20%. Wild times.
1981	-4.9%	—
1982	+21.5%	Beginning of the greatest bull market in history.
1983	+22.6%	—
1984	+6.3%	—
1985	+31.7%	—
1986	+18.7%	—
1987	+5.3%	Black Monday: market dropped 22% in ONE DAY. Still ended the year positive. Wild.
1988	+16.6%	—
1989	+31.7%	Berlin Wall falls. End of the Cold War. Capitalism wins.
1990	-3.1%	Gulf War. Recession. S&L crisis. But just a blip.
1991	+30.5%	—
1992	+7.6%	—
1993	+10.1%	—
1994	+1.3%	—
1995	+37.6%	The internet goes mainstream. Netscape IPOs. The dot-com era begins.
1996	+23.0%	Greenspan warns of 'irrational exuberance.' Market says 'whatever.'
1997	+33.4%	—
1998	+28.6%	LTCM collapses. Russia defaults. Market didn't care.
1999	+21.0%	Y2K panic. Everyone buys canned food. Market hits new highs.
2000	-9.1%	Dot-com bubble pops. Pets.com goes bankrupt. Reality arrives.
2001	-11.9%	9/11. Markets closed for 4 days. Reopened and dropped 7% in a week.
2002	-22.1%	Enron, WorldCom. Three straight down years — hadn't happened since WWII.
2003	+28.7%	Recovery begins. Those who bought in 2002 look like geniuses by now.
2004	+10.9%	—
2005	+4.9%	—
2006	+15.8%	—
2007	+5.5%	Housing bubble peaks. CDOs everywhere. 'This time is different.'
2008	-37.0%	Global Financial Crisis. Lehman dies. I started writing about Fannie Mae.
2009	+26.5%	Bottom was March 9. S&P 500 hit 666. Devil's number. Market's sense of humor.
2010	+15.1%	—
2011	+2.1%	US credit downgraded for the first time. Market barely noticed.
2012	+16.0%	—
2013	+32.4%	Best year since 1997. Everyone who sold in 2008 was kicking themselves.
2014	+13.7%	—
2015	+1.4%	—
2016	+12.0%	Brexit. Trump wins. Pundits predict crash. Market rallied. Pundits wrong, as usual.
2017	+21.8%	—
2018	-4.4%	Fed raises rates. Christmas Eve massacre. First down year since 2008.
2019	+31.5%	Best year since 2013. Market shrugs off trade war fears.
2020	+18.4%	COVID crash in March (-34% in 23 days), then fastest recovery ever. Madness.
2021	+28.7%	Meme stocks. GameStop. AMC. 'To the moon.' Peak retail enthusiasm.
2022	-18.1%	Inflation hits 9%. Fed raises rates aggressively. Crypto winter. Reality check.
2023	+26.3%	AI mania. Magnificent 7 stocks carry the market. Nvidia becomes everyone's favorite word.
2024	+25.0%	S&P 500 hits 6,000 for the first time. Two consecutive 25%+ years.
2025	-4.3%	Tariff uncertainty and inflation fears. Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news.

🏆

The Key Insight

If you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 in 1928 and never touched it, you'd have over $80 million today. The only skill required was patience. The market rewards those who show up and stay.

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