Myth Busting
Should I Pay Off Debt or Invest?
The mathematical answer is simple. The psychological answer is harder. Here's the framework I wish someone had given me 15 years ago.
The Interest Rate Framework
This is the entire decision tree. Memorize it.
Pay off IMMEDIATELY
No investment reliably beats 15-25% interest. This is an emergency.
Pay off aggressively
Pay off before investing beyond your employer 401k match.
The gray zone
Consider splitting: get employer match, then extra to debt, then more investing.
Lean toward investing
Historical stock returns exceed this range. Invest, especially in tax-advantaged accounts.
Invest (minimum payments on debt)
Inflation may be eroding the real value of this debt. Invest everything extra.
* Always get your employer 401k match first (that's a guaranteed 50-100% return). Then apply this framework.
Your Scenario
Amount you can put toward debt OR investing
S&P 500 avg ~7% real
Pay off debt first, then invest wins by
$3,856
Pay Off First
Net wealth: $388K
Debt-free in 6 years
Invest + Minimums
Net wealth: $384K
Both debt and investments growing
Comparison after 30 years. At 8% debt vs 7% returns, paying off debt wins because your guaranteed 'return' from eliminating interest exceeds expected investment returns.
Debt Priority Guide
Credit Card
~22% typicalPay off first. Always. No debate.
Personal Loan
~12% typicalPay off before investing in most cases.
Student Loans (Private)
~8% typicalBorderline. Consider refinancing + aggressive payoff.
Auto Loan
~6% typicalDepends on rate. Under 5%? Invest. Over 7%? Pay off.
Student Loans (Federal)
~5% typicalConsider income-driven repayment + invest the difference.
Mortgage
~6.5% typicalUsually invest (see our mortgage payoff page). Rate dependent.
Glen's Take
The math here is straightforward: if your debt costs more than your investments earn, pay off the debt. If your investments earn more, invest. Done. Next question.
But here's what the math doesn't capture: debt is certain, investment returns are not. Paying off an 8% loan is a guaranteed 8% return. Investing for a 7% return is a hope, an average, a long-run expectation that includes years where you lose 30%. Those years hit different when you also have $25,000 in debt.
My pragmatic approach: (1) get your employer 401k match — it's free money, (2) pay off anything over 8%, (3) build a small emergency fund, (4) invest everything else in a low-cost index fund, (5) make minimum payments on low-rate debt.
And for the love of everything: stop using credit cards if you carry a balance. No rewards card is worth 22% APR.
— Glen Bradford, who has very strong opinions about credit card debt
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