Read the screenplay: FANNIEGATE — $7 trillion. 17 years. The biggest fraud in American capital markets.

Myth Busting

Should I Pay Off Debt or Invest?

The mathematical answer is simple. The psychological answer is harder. Here's the framework I wish someone had given me 15 years ago.

The Interest Rate Framework

This is the entire decision tree. Memorize it.

15%+

Pay off IMMEDIATELY

No investment reliably beats 15-25% interest. This is an emergency.

8-15%

Pay off aggressively

Pay off before investing beyond your employer 401k match.

5-8%

The gray zone

Consider splitting: get employer match, then extra to debt, then more investing.

3-5%

Lean toward investing

Historical stock returns exceed this range. Invest, especially in tax-advantaged accounts.

0-3%

Invest (minimum payments on debt)

Inflation may be eroding the real value of this debt. Invest everything extra.

* Always get your employer 401k match first (that's a guaranteed 50-100% return). Then apply this framework.

Your Scenario

$
%
$

Amount you can put toward debt OR investing

%

S&P 500 avg ~7% real

Pay off debt first, then invest wins by

$3,856

Pay Off First

Net wealth: $388K

Debt-free in 6 years

Invest + Minimums

Net wealth: $384K

Both debt and investments growing

Comparison after 30 years. At 8% debt vs 7% returns, paying off debt wins because your guaranteed 'return' from eliminating interest exceeds expected investment returns.

Debt Priority Guide

Credit Card

~22% typical

Pay off first. Always. No debate.

Personal Loan

~12% typical

Pay off before investing in most cases.

Student Loans (Private)

~8% typical

Borderline. Consider refinancing + aggressive payoff.

Auto Loan

~6% typical

Depends on rate. Under 5%? Invest. Over 7%? Pay off.

Student Loans (Federal)

~5% typical

Consider income-driven repayment + invest the difference.

Mortgage

~6.5% typical

Usually invest (see our mortgage payoff page). Rate dependent.

⚖️

Glen's Take

The math here is straightforward: if your debt costs more than your investments earn, pay off the debt. If your investments earn more, invest. Done. Next question.

But here's what the math doesn't capture: debt is certain, investment returns are not. Paying off an 8% loan is a guaranteed 8% return. Investing for a 7% return is a hope, an average, a long-run expectation that includes years where you lose 30%. Those years hit different when you also have $25,000 in debt.

My pragmatic approach: (1) get your employer 401k match — it's free money, (2) pay off anything over 8%, (3) build a small emergency fund, (4) invest everything else in a low-cost index fund, (5) make minimum payments on low-rate debt.

And for the love of everything: stop using credit cards if you carry a balance. No rewards card is worth 22% APR.

— Glen Bradford, who has very strong opinions about credit card debt

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Recommended Resources

Tools & books I actually use and recommend

TradingView

Best charting platform out there. Real-time data, screeners, and a community of millions of traders.

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The Psychology of Money

Morgan Housel on why managing money is about behavior, not intelligence. Short, brilliant chapters you'll re-read.

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The Intelligent Investor

Ben Graham's timeless guide to value investing. The book Warren Buffett calls "the best investing book ever written."

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