Read the screenplay: FANNIEGATE — $7 trillion. 17 years. The biggest fraud in American capital markets.

How Much Do I Need to Retire?

The honest math behind retirement planning. Enter your actual numbers below and find out exactly how much you need, how long it will take, and what you might be forgetting. No BS, just compound interest and the 25x rule.

Quick Start: Pick Your Lifestyle

Your Numbers

Your age today

When you want to stop working

$

Gross annual salary/income

$

All retirement accounts + taxable investments

$

How much you save/invest each month

$

In today's dollars

Advanced Settings

%

4% is standard; 3.5% for early retirement

%

7% is long-term stock market average

%

3% is the historical average

Your Retirement Number

$1.50M

$60,000/year ÷ 4% withdrawal rate  · $5,000/month in retirement

Years to Goal

35

You'll hit your number at age 70

Projected at Retirement

$1.21M

At age 65 (30 years)

Shortfall

$290.5K

Need $427/mo more

Current Savings Rate

21.2%

Excellent — FIRE territory

Time to Get Serious

The math is telling you something important: either increase your savings rate, lower your target expenses, or plan to work longer. No shame in any of those. The worst thing you can do is ignore the numbers and hope for the best. Hope is not a financial strategy.

The 25x Rule: Your Retirement Number in 10 Seconds

The simplest retirement formula in existence: multiply your annual expenses by 25. That is your retirement number. If you spend $50,000 a year, you need $1.25 million. Spend $100,000? You need $2.5 million.

Why 25x? Because it is the inverse of the 4% safe withdrawal rate. If you withdraw 4% of $1.25 million, you get $50,000 per year. The Trinity Study showed that a 4% initial withdrawal rate, adjusted for inflation annually, survived 95%+ of all 30-year historical periods since 1926.

The catch: 25x assumes a 30-year retirement. If you are retiring at 55 and plan to live to 90, that is 35 years. You might want 28-33x for safety (a 3-3.5% withdrawal rate). The earlier you retire, the more conservative you should be.

What most people miss: the 25x rule is based on your expenses, not your income. This is why cutting expenses is a double win — it both reduces your retirement number AND frees up more money to invest. A person earning $80,000 who spends $40,000 needs less than a person earning $200,000 who spends $150,000.

6 Costs Most People Forget in Retirement Planning

Healthcare Before Medicare

$15K-$25K/year

If you retire before 65, you're on the ACA marketplace. A couple in their late 50s can pay $1,500-$2,000/month for decent coverage.

Long-Term Care

$60K-$120K/year

About 70% of 65-year-olds will need some form of long-term care. Nursing homes average $8,000-$10,000/month.

Home Maintenance

1-2% of home value/year

That $400K house needs $4,000-$8,000/year in maintenance. Roofs, HVAC, plumbing — they all have expiration dates.

Taxes in Retirement

Varies

Traditional 401(k)/IRA withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. Social Security may be partially taxable. Only Roth accounts provide tax-free income.

Inflation

~3%/year historically

At 3% inflation, your purchasing power halves every 24 years. A 30-year retirement means your last dollar buys 40% of what your first dollar bought.

Sequence-of-Returns Risk

Can destroy portfolios

A big market drop in your first 3-5 years of retirement is far more damaging than one 20 years in. This is why the first few years matter most.

Glen's Take: What I Actually Do

I ran a hedge fund. I have written over 2,700 blog posts about investing. I have analyzed more financial data than most people will see in a lifetime. And here is my retirement plan:

Low-cost index funds. Max out tax-advantaged accounts. Keep expenses low. Do not try to be clever.

Seriously. After a decade of analyzing individual stocks, writing hundreds of investment theses, and watching people (including myself) make every mistake in the book, the answer for most people is boring: buy VTI or VTSAX, keep buying, never sell, and let compound interest do the work.

The people who build real wealth are not the ones picking hot stocks. They are the ones who automate their savings, live below their means, and have the discipline to not touch their investments when the market drops 30%. That is the whole secret.

My options record is 1 win, 8 losses. I have made more money from consistent index fund contributions than from any clever trade. Learn from my mistakes — check out my worst trades page if you want proof that humility beats ego in investing.

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