Read the screenplay: FANNIEGATE — $7 trillion. 17 years. The biggest fraud in American capital markets.
Market Terms

What Is Deflation?

Deflation is a sustained decrease in the general price level. Learn what causes deflation, why it can be worse than inflation, and historical examples.

Definition

Deflation is a sustained decrease in the general level of prices for goods and services. It is the opposite of inflation. When deflation occurs, the purchasing power of money increases -- your dollars buy more over time. While that sounds appealing, economists generally consider deflation more dangerous than moderate inflation.

The danger of deflation lies in the "deflationary spiral." When prices fall, consumers delay purchases (why buy today if it's cheaper tomorrow?). This reduces demand, forcing businesses to cut prices further, lay off workers, and reduce investment. Unemployment rises, incomes fall, and spending drops even more -- creating a vicious cycle that can be very hard to break.

The most famous example of deflation is the Great Depression of the 1930s, when U.S. prices fell roughly 25% over four years. More recently, Japan experienced a "Lost Decade" of deflation from the 1990s through the 2000s, resulting in stagnant economic growth for over 20 years.

$

Real-World Example

During Japan's deflationary period, a home purchased in 1991 for the equivalent of $500,000 might have been worth only $250,000 by 2010. Workers saw their wages decline. Consumers hoarded cash instead of spending because they knew prices would be lower next year. The Japanese central bank cut interest rates to zero and still could not stimulate enough spending. This cautionary tale is why central banks around the world fear deflation and target mild inflation instead.

!

Why It Matters

Deflation seems like a good thing on the surface -- cheaper prices! -- but it wreaks havoc on the economy. It increases the real burden of debt (you owe the same dollar amount, but each dollar is harder to earn), discourages business investment, and can trigger mass unemployment. Understanding deflation helps you appreciate why central banks target 2% inflation: mild inflation is the lesser of two evils compared to deflation.

Get Glen’s Updates

Investing insights, new tools, and whatever I’m building this week. Free. No spam.

Unsubscribe anytime. I respect your inbox more than Congress respects property rights.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is deflation good or bad?

While falling prices benefit consumers in the short term, sustained deflation is generally considered bad for the economy because it discourages spending, increases debt burdens, and can trigger a deflationary spiral of declining wages and rising unemployment.

What causes deflation?

Deflation can be caused by decreased demand, overproduction, technological advances that lower costs, a decrease in money supply, or tight monetary policy. Major financial crises and asset bubbles bursting can also trigger deflation.

What is the difference between deflation and disinflation?

Deflation means prices are actually falling (negative inflation rate). Disinflation means the rate of inflation is decreasing but still positive. Going from 5% inflation to 2% inflation is disinflation, not deflation.

Related Terms

Recommended Resources

Tools & books I actually use and recommend

SeekingAlpha Premium

Quant ratings, earnings transcripts, and the stock analysis community where I published 300+ articles.

Try SeekingAlpha

A Random Walk Down Wall Street

Burton Malkiel's classic case for index investing. The book that convinced millions to stop stock-picking.

View on Amazon

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing

John Bogle's manifesto on why low-cost index funds beat everything else. Straight from the founder of Vanguard.

View on Amazon

Some links above are affiliate links. I only recommend products I personally use. See my full disclosures.

Browse All 106 Terms