New Seeking Alpha: Fannie And Freddie Likely Secondary Offering Huge For FNMAS

I just published my latest Seeking Alpha article: Fannie And Freddie Likely Secondary Offering Huge For FNMAS.

This is the first new SA piece I've published in a while, and it covers a lot of ground — the full article is on Seeking Alpha, so go read it there. Here's what I'm thinking and what didn't make it into the article.

What the Article Covers

The piece walks through every material development since my last SA update: Trump's executive orders naming FHFA, the pro-recap Treasury appointments (Pettit, McKernan, Bessent), Pulte's public statements on timeline and secondary offering mechanics, FHFA's own strategic plan signaling conservatorship exit, and the FSOC's new activities-based approach that undermines the argument for indefinite conservatorship.

I also break down the litigation landscape — the Collins remand is effectively closed after Rop v. FHFA, while the Berkley class action ($850M+ judgment) and Kelly v. United States takings case remain active.

The core thesis: junior preferred shares like FNMAS offer structural protection through par value, contractual dividend rights, and anti-dilution provisions that common shares simply don't have. I walk through the pro forma restructuring math on why.

What I Didn't Say on SA

The thing about writing for SA is you have to be measured. Here's what I'm actually feeling:

The Donald Layton shift is huge. The former CEO of Freddie Mac — who has historically been cautious about recap and release — published a Furman Center piece on March 24 that, for the first time, explicitly supports the direction of Trump's administrative action on capital requirements. When the former CEO of one of the companies you're investing in starts agreeing with your thesis, that's a signal.

The FSOC activities-based approach is underappreciated. Everyone focused on Tim Scott's midterms comment (which is about the legislative path, not the administrative path). Meanwhile, FSOC quietly proposed a framework that includes off-ramps for systemically important designations and cost-benefit requirements. This is the regulatory infrastructure that makes post-conservatorship life possible.

I've been in this trade since 2014. That's 12 years. I've overestimated timeline confidence every single year. I say that in the article and I mean it — this has been the most humbling investment of my life. But the fundamental setup has never been stronger: profitable companies, government overpaid, administration intent on release, and the people in the key seats are all aligned.

My Positions

I hold junior preferred shares across 26 series of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred stock. They're essentially all I own. Full position disclosure is always available on my positions page and in the trading analysis.

Read the Full Article

Fannie And Freddie Likely Secondary Offering Huge For FNMAS →

For background on my GSE thesis, trading history, and the full timeline:

• Fanniegate — The Largest Government Theft of Private Property
• Trading Analysis — 2,068 Trades Over 4 Years
• GSE Catalyst Tracker
• My Worst Trades — Full Transparency