LPH Old LPIH Guidance Analysis
I’m updating my guidance based on the slides:
http://www.redchip.com/visibility/conferencePages/newyorkJul2010/PowerPoints/Day1/LPH/LPIH.ppt
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=43550936&symbol=OTCBB:LPIH
These are my estimates, I have not talked with the company. I am part of the private placement on October 26, 2009.
My fully diluted share count, based on the latest guidance for the last 2 months and my carryforward estimates, including my calculations using the black-scholes option pricing model… here’s the key takeaways.
1. The shares in escrow subject to the make good, those are shares that I have been advising my investors that we may get — at this point, i’m relatively confident that we won’t get any of those. Yes, this sucks for me. I thought that I could be getting some free shares but unfortunately June/July sucked for this sector, the uplist came late, etc. etc.
This works to the common shareholders’ advantage,
so, my fully diluted share count is now
21+21+.1=42.1 mgmt shares+.1+12.5+13.5+30.4=98.6M shares fully diluted
also note that these diluted shares would include cash proceeds of roughly $30M going to LPH (Warrants)
so, they guided for $73M of net income in 2011,
across the fully diluted shares this is $0.74 EPS (their estimate)
Total revenues for the two months ended May 31, 2010 were $72.9 million, up 128% from $32.0 million for the same period last year. Gross profit for the two-month period was $15.4 million
72.9M*12/2=$437.4M
Press Release Source: Longwei Petroleum Investment Holding Ltd. On Monday May 17, 2010, 6:55 am The company reaffirms its previously stated guidance for the fiscal year 2011 financial results projecting Revenue for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2011 of $494.7 million with Adjusted Net Income of $73.0 million and GAAP Net Income of $57.3 million. The projection for Adjusted EPS is $0.71 and GAAP EPS is $0.56, respectively
shucks, let’s run with that, because i can’t remember specifically what crane’s guidance was except that 10% net margins were likely too low, but that conversation was like, a year ago. note their guidance for net margins is 14.8% now
thus, it looks like redchip guidance has lpih growing revenues about 14% from may production to june production and then no growth for the entire 2011.
optimistic? not really. sure the profit margins are what i would target, but based on the additional storage facilities that just need a little bit of changes to hold fuel and add to the business flow —i’m going to assume that the fuel storage grows on a monthly basis by 5% a month. and net margins of 15%
so there is my guidance $0.97 for 2011 non-GAAP adjusted for warrants
——————————Addendum——– 8/14/2010
hmm, looks like you’re right and i’m wrong.
with certain insiders of the Company who placed an aggregate of 13,499,274 shares of the Company’s common stock into escrow
Series A Convertible Preferred Stock, No Par Value, 14,000,000 Shares Authorized, 11,092,925 and 0 Issued and Outstanding as of March 31, 2010
and June 30, 2009 (Liquidation Preference of $12,202,218 as of March 31, 2010)
Common Stock, No Par Value; 500,000,000 Shares Authorized; 87,552,711 and 81,852,831 Issued and Outstanding, 13,499,274 Shares Held in
Escrow Subject to Contingent Future Events, as of March 31, 2010 and June 30, 2009
13,499,274 warrants
87,552,711+13,499,274+11,092,925
=
111.9M shares
readjusts my estimate to
$0.857 EPS for 2011
FP/E of 2.33