Here’s the mail it never fails it makes me want to wag my tail … MAIL! (From Blue’s Clues)
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Fernando,
It’s difficult to rank these as they are mostly my top picks as well. For me, it’s a mental matrix of risk which mostly results from “turn up the heat” plays.. like ccgy, or xing, or pudz.. and then there is straight upside potential, where companies like myst, ccgy, lpih, and chme dominate. and then there are the no brainers, sgzh, opai, ltus, cnam, cdbt, (kind of chcg)
-Glen
Hey Glen,
I was wondering if I could get your 1-10 ranking for my list, like you did for that guy in your blog. Thanks! (Some of these are fernandos notes, my notes are marked with a -G
As you mentioned, I did do a quick and dirty “tier” system of the stocks I follow. My opinion on these stocks changes frequently, so it is nothing but a ballpark estimate… I’ll throw out my list, would appreciate your own rankings on them. My tier1 and tier2 are tough to distinguish, I like all of them and stocks move between the tiers frequently for me.
Tier 1:
LPIH (own) – 8 Largest position I have, bought more at $1.05 on latest pullback.
LLFH (own) – 3 Somewhat expensive. I could easily list this as Tier 2 based on price, but I like the management and know they will be uplisting to AMEX very very soon. Once that catalyst is gone, this will likely be tier 2 for me.
CCGY (own) 8
Tier 2:
SKBI (own) 9
CYXN (own) – 8 I love their remote-diagnostic thing. (i think that my article of doubling outstading shares is WRONG. there is no way, i re-read their convertibles… things are looking Significatnly better than my lazy worst case – g)
LTUS (own) 9 – (expanding with working capital, brilliant! -g)
SGZH (own) 9 (cheap + cash + growth + coal over there is consolidating, see pudz/puda/pudc – g)
CNAM (own) 9 – (trading at less than the $ value of loans they’ve been granted recently. For a chinese microcap this is RETARDED – g)
CNOA (own) 8 (hoping that the 3rd and 4th quarters are still big and they didnt spin off that business segment – g)
CDBT (own) 8 (needs to reverse split, pick up shareholders and uplist – g)
JGBO (own) 7 (has a problem with dilution because its cash is locked up – g)
CPQQ (own) – 6 Tier2 at current price of around $1. Used to be Tier 3.
Tier 3:
PUDZ 6 (Own a little, was tier2/tier3 for me at $4. Uplisted and spiked) SGTI (own) MYST – Waiting for R/S and to see what direction restructuring takes.
Could easily become Tier2.
CGDI – (just rallied like 40%.. sucks cause i was trying to fill 100,000 shares at .28 only got 10,000 -G so i’m buying cheap, tell geoinvesting to stop picking up my stocks a month after i find them. when are they going to hire me to “find their stocks?”)
WKBT – 7 (a lot of people are excited about this, i must just be missing something)
CHCG – 8 (Its trading at almost cash-on-hand) OPAI – 7 (own a little) GFRE – 5 CHIO – 7 (own) CBPO – 8 RINO – 4 CHME – 8 XING – 5(own) – Speculative but trading below cash-on-hand.
Speculative Watch list: CHFI and JADA. Not sure where i’d rank them.”
-Fernando
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EROC – should outperform S&P500. should have clicked this instead of UNG for outperform on motley fool caps – from plan maestro see below -glen
Glenn, this is a series with comments to EROC. At current prices the potential I would say is 4x-5x not the 10x you are looking for. However, there are not many of those anymore in the US… China maybe 🙂 I bought in the low 3s.
Hedges and Commodity Risk
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_E/threadview?bn=69301&tid=3281&mid=3334
Recent Proposal
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_E/threadview?m=tm&bn=69301&tid=3726&mid=3733&tof=6&rt=1&frt=2&off=1
Very Conservative Valuation
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_E/threadview?m=tm&bn=69301&tid=3726&mid=3747&tof=6&rt=1&frt=2&off=1
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LS,
It sounds to me like you are stuck in the land of opportunity cost.
The only service I provide is private asset management. Everything else I do is for fun (at least for now).
Remember to not forget that when a company goes up in price, it becomes more risky to buy and less attractive to acquire.
Conseco should be $10+. I haven’t stayed up to date on the Citigroup dilution story. http://www.globalspeculation.com/archives/223
In Seinfeld and in life, just because the other lanes of traffic appear to be moving faster does not mean that you will get ahead by changing lanes at any given point in time. The trick is doing your best to anticipate which lanes are going to be going the fastest in the long haul.
If your objective is to buy back into CNO, do it immediately. Above $5, the mutual funds will carry it to $10. That’s what dumb money does. Dumb money loves to pay what things are worth. If Citigroup ever breaks $5, expect to see it run. That’s my sentiment. I don’t own enough Citigroup to look deeper. There is so much easy money out there that I’m already invested in.
Good Luck
Best regards,
Glen Bradford
CEO ARM Holdings LLC
TheStreet.com/Stockpickr.com/Seekingalpha.com
Disclaimer: Anything above is not advertising or advice to buy or sell securities or do anything. Any stocks or companies or legal entities mentioned Glen may own at any time and sell for any reason without warning. Glen maintains that following his advice will likely lead you to bankruptcy. Glen believes that he has no idea what he is doing and you shouldn’t follow him. Anything that he says is his best guess for what may be happening and is likely to be wrong. He strongly advises that you question why you even bother listening to him. The websites that he may list or manage also are a source of unreliable information and should not be taken seriously. This is not investment advice.
Frm:
Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 4:26 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: (no subject)
Hi Glenn
I sold CNO around 3.21 and bought C at around 4.14.
CNO has almost doubles since then, and C just about the same.
I really liked CNO, and I want to get back in however I will be buying back only half the shares.
I need your guidance if there is any other good stocks that I can get into in the meantime: my objective is to buy back into CNO at least the same amount of shares of CNO.
I would gladly pay for your service. You are a professional and I need your help.
Thanks
LS
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Hey Dustin,
This is one of the better lists.
Great Stuff, I’ll just do my best to ballpark rank them 1-10 quick. 10 is the best. Do note that my sentiment changes all the time and I own most of these. Fernando put out a list recently somewhere with his 3 tiers of companies and ranks. I believe some post on finance.yahoo.com — if he’s reading this, feel free to comment at the bottom with a link of that list.
In the past, I’ve given mine out. The issue with that is that when collaborating, it’s best to collaborate with people that aren’t biased to what you already told them — because you get two independent opinions. I was having a lot of people just give me my own information back, wasn’t helping me at all. And then I don’t mind when people make a ton of money off my ideas, that’s what they are there for.
Best regards,
Glen Bradford
CEO ARM Holdings LLC
TheStreet.com/Stockpickr.com/Seekingalpha.com
www.armholdingsllc.com
Disclaimer: Anything above (or below in this case) is not advertising or advice to buy or sell securities or do anything. Any stocks or companies or legal entities mentioned Glen may own at any time and sell for any reason without warning. Glen maintains that following his advice will likely lead you to bankruptcy. Glen believes that he has no idea what he is doing and you shouldn’t follow him. Anything that he says is his best guess for what may be happening and is likely to be wrong. He strongly advises that you question why you even bother listening to him. The websites that he may list or manage also are a source of unreliable information and should not be taken seriously. This is not investment advice.
From: Dustin [mailto:dustin
Sent: Wednesday, September 16, 2009 8:20 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Another question – quick one
Hey man,
Sorry for bugging you again – quick question:
I’ve always been an advocate of “less is more” in a portfolio. Basically, own fewer, better companies rather than diversifying over several (which I know is your philosophy as well). However, I find myself in a difficult situation due to all the great bargains out there. I have about 14-17 stocks that I really like, but I’d like to narrow it down to 8-10, maybe less. My question is, how to do that? Now, I definitely do my DD on all my stocks, but I really do like them all and their growth potential. After I research my stocks, I usually look at what you have to say about them since I consider you a great investor. So Glen, when you have to narrow down a list of stocks, how do you do it? I lean towards the stocks that are in industries set to grow rapidly, but I can’t ignore some of the valuations on the others.
Here are my following stocks. Some I already own.
CHFI – 5
CNOA – 8 (however, I feel like I could get exposure to this by investing in CHFI)
LTUS – 8
PUDZ – 8
OPAI – 8
CEU – 3
SKBI – 7
CNAM – 9
LLFH – 4
CPQQ – 6
CPHI – 3
RINO – 3
CMFO – 3
CHGY – I like this one and am way optimistic – 7
SGZH – 9
CCGY – 7
LIWA – 5
NEP – 4(own)
CHIO – 5 (own)
MYST – 6(own)
LPIH – 8(own)
Whenever you get a chance, shoot me an e-mail. I definitely appreciate all that you do on your blog and other websites.
Dustin