CNO:
I saw Steel Partners LP selling as well, you have to remember they were buying around $10 anyway. What do they know? Saw the guy stroll into the last CNO meeting first hand. I made sure not to talk to him. He got a round of applause, and welcomed to the board of directors.
Looks to me like insiders are mostly buying http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=cno#getInsiderTrans
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=cno
Steel partners, as I recall, is still sitting on 10M shares. So, they cut down maybe 20% of their holdings. As an investor, I do that all the time if it’s my largest position. And, if I was them, looking at a lot of red and pressure from my investors because I bought at $10, and my investors just took huge losses last year and had the (GET ME THE *** OUT OF HERE) mentality… I just can’t really see much into it. I am fairly positive the company is going to put down positive EPS numbers 90% confident here.
AHR:
I am less confident in. They have a lot more CMBS risk outstanding, and their share price is whooped. That said, I’ve been accumulating as well. They were making money all but the 4th quarter of last year when they took ABSOLUTELY GINORMOUS writedowns. Then, they were profitable Q1, and I expect profitability Q2. After all, the market is settling since then.
As far as blackrock and anthracite go, Blackrock manages Anthracite. I didn’t really know they were buying or selling AHR.
I personally think AHR will be catching a break here in the next 3 months. Blackrock, it’s boss-man, is the “All American Quarterback”.
It’s caught headlines like:
BlackRock Inc., started 21 years ago in a one-room office by former mortgage-bond trader Laurence Fink, agreed to buy Barclays Plc’s investment unit for $13.5 billion to become the world’s largest money manager.
U.S. names 9 firms to manage program to sell banks’ toxic assets. Group includes BlackRock, Wellington Management and Invesco.
Blackrock is into: high yield commercial real estate loans. This is pretty much the Junk that everyone is freaking out about going down the pooper as far as I’m concerned.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/ShQKBEyAORI/AAAAAAAAFTM/03RNGrH9sEA/s1600-h/CreditSuisseResetMarch09.jpg
I sat down and thought about the whole situation. Interest rates in the united states are going to stay low, because if they don’t… this whole market will come tumbling down, and we’ll leg into depression. As far as looking forward go, things are getting better, now. Yes, they actually are. I’m not talking about things not getting worse. I’m talking about them getting better. Employment is a lagging indicator, and so are all the other things that wall street is covering. Oil prices and energy prices should come down and carry us into the winter. Natural gas is oversupplied, so is oil. Commodities are priced something along the lines of marginal utility. Oversupply means lower prices. Lower costs of operating for most businesses = larger profits, lower interest rates is good for banks. Inflation is not here. So, get out of my TBT play that I called in January. Inflation has never happened without home prices increasing in value — and that’s not going to happen anytime soon. All things considered, I’m sticking with AHR. I think that people are going to be hating on it until earnings come out along with blackrock giving them their own “stimulus package”. 60% confident here
But, good news! run the probabilities.
(10% confidence) * $8 + 0*90%= $0.80
Even with 10% probability, this thing is a money maker from this price level.
But, I don’t know anything. I’m just really lucky and I focus on not screwing up.
Hope this helps,
Glen
From: Scott Stefani
Sent: Wednesday, July 08, 2009 8:33 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: Glen Belated Independence Day Update
Glen:
I hope you had a Happy 4th. Your Toys ‘R Us write-up was awesome. I now own a sizeable position in just about all of your China stock recommendations (I really like MYST and CHID from your most recent article). I’m also biting my nails in hopes that AHR has a nice bounce soon, it’s definitely one of my more sizeable positions that I’ve continued to buy on the way down. You mentioned Blackrock buying back stock in AHR, but on Yahoo Finance, it shows them acquiring 38,834 shares, but then also dispositioning 107,291 shares. Can you elaborate on this at all?
Also, I was perusing the SEC website today, and happened to run across a filing from Conseco (CNO). It looks as if Steel Partners LP sold 2,737,300 shares of CNO … is this CNO buying back the shares or can you help explain what this means? Here’s a copy & paste from the website:
Transactions in the Shares During the Past 60 Days
Class of
Security Securities
(Sold)
Price ($) Date of
Sale
STEEL PARTNERS II, L.P.
Common Stock (504,518) 1.8322 06/25/09
Common Stock (325,000) 1.8738 06/25/09
Common Stock (1,464,100) 2.1691 06/26/09
Common Stock (16,493) 2.3500 06/29/09
Common Stock (427,192) 2.3857 06/30/09
I appreciate any insight you may be able to reveal. Thank you very much Glen and I wish you the best of luck with your Hedge Fund.
Scott