Tom,
Looking through HERO. CNEH in my opinion is just a better deal. No reason to screw around with HERO since it’s still losing money and it’s contracts are up in the air. I don’t think this rebound is going to send OIL above $60 in the short term (long term is another deal), not to mention July of 2008 and the surrounding 5 months caused a lot of people to start drilling their own oil. Supply is going to be huge. CNEH is intelligent, but I’m just not feeling HERO. Rule #1: Don’t lose money. I don’t want to take risks to make huge gains.
Not big on IO either. I think this one is a turn-around play and will probably turn back to huge profits in a year or two, but not a play right now. Their 2009 projections don’t look very pleasant. If they’re not optimistic, I’m not either. Oil can be bought cheaper at wall street than it costs to go find it and harvest it.
Glen
From: Tom Anthony [mail
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2009 8:58 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD
Thanks for the response, Glen. Yeah, ORS shot up and then fell pretty hard…glad to hear you got out when you did. I never made a position, I just never really felt confident with it.
Bought into CNEH the other day when it hit 1.35. Another one i’ve been watching is Hero – I know its not a China stock, so I’m not sure how interested you are – but its over 95% off of its 52 week high. Their earnings are at the end of the month. I bought into IO about a month ago and I’m thinking that Hero may have more upside potential, even though it looks like I may have missed its bottom… but I need to get a better understanding of them. I think IO is a pretty good investment with potential but maybe not as much as Hero. I dunno yet, but you may want to give it a looksee.
Anyways, like i said before, I enjoy reading your site… and I’m not ashamed at all of cherry picking CNO from you. hahaha.
Tom
On Wed, Apr 8, 2009 at 1:17 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard
Blog Wars Transcript:
Hey Glen – are you in this for the long haul or did you get out at the bounce yesterday?
Are you still bullish on ORS?
Thanks,
Tom A
5:20 PM
Glen Bradford said…
Tom,
I sold ORS at $1.04, something like 200% profit.
I am not a big fan of their A/R being something like 200 days of sales and increasing.
I’m hesitant until this thing gets cheaper or reports better A/R turnover. I’m familiar with the MCI swindles of the 1995 era. This could be similar. I have no idea; happy speculation.
Glen
From: Tom Anthony
Sent: Thursday, April 02, 2009 11:39 AM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD
Haha. I don’t think I can ever fault a guy for going out and having a few drinks…or more. I’ve been out of school for going on 4 years now – I definitely miss the random Tues/Wed nights out.
CNEH – their earnings report on Monday was pretty impressive. I really like oil and I have wanted to get exposure to oil in China.
They’ve been granted another year and half time to get listed on a major exchange. This may be a good time to pick them up before they list. They amended the terms in early March for listing.
In 04 when they changed to CNEH they had I think around 20 wells and planned to have 102 more wells completed in 4 years. From their recent earnings, it shows they have 219 operating wells – I would have to see that as a big positive.
I’m not sure of all the specifics with their PTR agreement, but for the first 10 years PTR gets 20% of their production and that jumps up to 40% in 2013. I’m not entirely sure how that will affect them in 5 years, but for the next five years its 20% of their production that PTR takes per their exclusive agreement and they have obviously been growing extremely well – 08 was a huge year for them.
They are not too far off their lows and their growth does seem pretty enticing. I haven’t decided if I’m going to create a position at all – most of my money that I’ve planned to invest is already invested in the market and every month I try to add to it – I need to make sure this is a better play than something else. Let me know your thoughts.
Thanks – Tom
On Thu, Apr 2, 2009 at 10:25 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard > wrote:
Tom,
I’ve been looking into it. Looks like a cash / accounts receivable problem.
Same thing with ORS.
Take a peek at CNEH.
I will be digging deeper though. I went out last night instead of sorting through company information.
Glen
From: Tom Anthony
Sent: Wednesday, April 01, 2009 7:33 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD
Hey Glen,
I read your article about CNO awhile back and just wanted to say thanks for bringing that opportunity to my attention.
I was wondering what your thoughts were on Asia Time Corp if you’ve looked at that stock at all. They had their IPO early 2008 which started out well for them but they are over 90% off their highs with a PE around .6. Obviously they don’t have a lot of history though. Their last financials showed them with a good amount of cash on hand. I’m still waiting for earnings to come out. The same thing is going on with ORS – no earnings. I figured they would be out this week, but that hasn’t happened yet. I know awhile back you were interested in ORS – are you still? Anyways, I enjoy reading your stuff – thanks.
Tom
I’m dumping XIN ASAP. I’m finding other opportunities that are significantly better. XIN is still a great company and will probably appreciate in price…
But, like most of my articles indicate: I will always drop a great deal if I find a better one. Right now, you can find growing companies with P/E < 2. That’s huge.
Just be glad you’re investing in china. It’s set to do significantly better than the US markets. The shanghai is already up about 27% so far this year, not to mention that it’s up more than that from its bottom.
I don’t plan on writing articles on the absolutely unbelievable deals I’m finding. I plan on putting them on my blog and trying to pick up a few more individual investors. When I feel that I’m personally invested enough, that’s when I’m going to take my ideas public again. I see no reason to tell other people about hidden gold when I am not set to profit from it.
Glen
From: Tom Anthony
Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 3:26 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD
Thanks for getting back to me, Glen – I do appreciate it. My one concern with KHD was their ability to grow, but throw in the China stimulus and their cash on hand and I thought it deserved more research.
I’ve read through your blog and completely agree on XIN, I picked up some shares back when it was below 2 bucks. I don’t know much about GHII, but will definitely do some more digging on it.
Thanks again, Glen
Tom
On Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 8:39 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard
I was looking through their investor presentation. It looks like it may be cheap for a reason. The industry appears to be cyclical.
I think that there is probably more downside. That’s my best guess. I would rather bet on companies that are going to grow in these hard times and are equally cheap.
Glen
From: Tom Anthony
Sent: Friday, February 13, 2009 10:58 AM
To: gbra
Subject: KHD
Hey Glen – I came across your blog the other night as I was researching AOB when I sa
w it at under 4.80. You seem pretty bullish on most things China and I’d like to get your opinion on KHD. It seems like every other value / bargain screen pops this one out. I’m trying to come out with a reason why this wouldn’t be a good stock to get into, it seems that with its cash > market cap its a no brainer. What do you think?
Thanks,
Tom A.
————————————————————————
Tom,
I agree with your analysis on CPX. I’m leaving this one alone. I don’t see oil prices booming — but CPX is likely to outperform the market — just not enough for me to consider worth my time for this risk level.
COP — not enough upside to be worth my time.
GCI — probably going to $8, don’t see it going up past $20. The internet is awesome. I don’t invest in short term long term ideas. I need a long term idea.
HERO — see above.
MGM — sounds like a gamble. I’ll pass. I’m risk averse. We didn’t miss the boat. There is more upside, and then… there’s some downside… serious downside.
ZLC — I prefer Blue Nile to Zales, but let’s take a peek. I think it’s cheap for a reason, or at least analysts do. I don’t want any diamonds. I don’t understand why people pay so much for them.
SKS — I shop there but I don’t buy anything. I’m not a huge fan right now. There is upside though. Probably an easy double. I just don’t like playing games with companies in a rut.
From: tcors [mailt On Behalf Of Tom Corson-Knowles
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2009 9:18 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: Real Stocks for Real Investors
Hey,
CPX looks decent. It has strong cash flow, strong balance sheet, and is earning about $150 M+, so it’s effectively trading at 2-3x earnings. However, it’s likely overcapacity in the industry will get worse if oil prices stay low. If oil prices boom, this stock will boom. If you were betting on oil prices rising, I am not sure if this stock would give you a better return as opposed to other options like COP.
I like Gannet. It is in the worst industry in the world in my opinion, but it is generating $1 b+ net income and trading for less than $900 M. It’s current ratio is getting worse though and is coming close to 1:1. Long-term, this would be a bad investment because of the industry, but for 1-2 years or less, it could pay off well.
HERO is a lot like CPX, but they focus on offshore drilling. It’s trading at ~ 1.6x earnings.
MGM is up a shitton. Looks like we missed that boat.
None of these companies really impressed me, but I will keep an eye on these 3, ZLC, and SKS.
Tom C.
—————————————————————————-
thanks, alot of folks love the quote, we sell alot of high end knives to our military.
Last month we sold a big order to Homeland Security!
I went ahead about bought some CAEI today, glad I got in at $1
paul
People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf. Orwell
http://www.tdeknives.com/
—–Original Message—–
From: Bradford, Gle Ri
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 05:24 PM
To: paul
Subject: RE: Nine Top China Plays
Paul,
You’re email didn’t pass my Junk e-mail filter. I found it anyway.
I’ll see what I can do. I run a bulletin board on ORS.
I invite you to check it out.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=8745
I’ll be looking more at this since you pointed it out. Just curious, but do you usually get responses when you link to a knife website in your email? Haha, I can see that some people might be threatened. Good stuff.
I’m pretty good at getting responses. Shoot me your contacts that you’ve emailed and I send them looking like a student, people love students. People are afraid of knives.
Glen
From: paul
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2009 10:52 PM
To: gbrad
Subject: Nine Top China Plays
Hello there Mr. Bradford
I really enjoyed your read on the China picks. I have been accumulating many, many thousands of shares of ORS and I do believe it has a ton of potienal. I am considering buying several thousand more this week before the possible April 1, end of year release.
The BIG item holding down ORS is their Accounts Receivables. If they get them back in line, the stock will explode. I wanted to ask if you have found any info that suggests they have.
I have scanned all over the Internet and they will not answer emails so I was looking for any clue before I sink more money in. Just thought it would not hurt to ask another informed investor. Thanks for your time and keep up the good work.
paul
http://www.tdeknives.com/
———————————————————————————
Hello Glen,
I’ve been following your blog and investing the remainder of my ancient investments (ever hear of CMGI?) from 2000 -2001, where, I must say, I lost just about every penny I ever made betting on the dotcom boom. Since last October, when I discovered your site, I’ve taken my remaining 1000 bucks and now have doubled it investing in your stock recommendations. That would have been nice with the original 40K, but I’ll take what I can get.
Kindest regards,
David Wagner
D.A.Wagner Productions LLC