http://thenewsunit.blogspot.com/2011/04/warren-buffet-paper-money-is-not-good.html
George soros’s largest holdings are in gold.
His think tank suggests that the “too big to fail” banks have put options on the US government and the US government wont let them fail.
marc faber agrees.
anyway, a lot of our inflation has been exported to emerging markets. i am anticipating an overall abandoning of the dollar, the american way of life should be cut at least 25% (in terms of lifestyle) — the price we pay at the pump should go up a few bucks…
that’s what i’m looking at, also looking at a chinese real estate bubble, us real estate has been crashing, wont turn around, but the more inflation you cause, there will be a bottom in prices.. just imagine, if a home is worth $100,000 and it is valued at $500,000, normally you’d lose 80%. but if you start printing money, you’re perceived loss is less.
short us treasuries, interest rates are going up baby! and if they don’t own commodities.
frankly, we are due for a crash. bidu could be a fraud. who knows. look to chanos, he’s shorting commodity companies, good man.
that’s the problem, there is likely going to be a crash because the demand out there is artificial at this point, during a crash, commodity prices tend to come down… but… i’m not so sure what happens when the crash happens due to hyperinflation. still trying to figure it out myself
http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/13/bretton_woods_outlook_dark_for_america
If you study banks, they do poorly when the yield curve is flattening, inverting, interest rates are going up, economies sour, etc.
I’m pretty confident we’ll see at least 1 of those 4 in the next 12 months.
It looks to me like the US financial system is heading for collapse potentially. I agree with Soros that the “too big to fail banks” essentially are short The US Government — because if they start to fail, the government has to bail them out. These same banks have the upper hand with low interest rates compared to the smaller regional banks. I expect that at this point in time, it is impossible for the US government to ever balance the budget unless they cut social security, medicare, and Medicaid. Interest rates are as low as they will ever be here in the USA.
In my opinion, there is 1 chart out there that you absolutely need to see if you haven’t already if you invest in dollars, have dollars, or use dollars:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AMBNS
Summary:
There is a lot of information below, mostly excerpts/summaries. Overall Goldman is better off than all the other banks out there. That said, given my perception of where things are likely heading — I’d still question whether I want to own it or not. For the most part, however, I don’t believe that owning companies in general at this point in time is a good bet. If I was allocating, I’d be 33% Gold/Silver/Commodities, 33% Cash, and I’d be looking for companies to short. I do believe that commodities would get a lot cheaper if markets crash, that’s the kicker. One thing I would emphasize is liquidity and diversification into things that aren’t “terrible.” For example, holding bonds for the next 5 years will likely be terrible if you buy them at today’s prices. One thing I would consider if I had access to it would be to take out full lines of credit, and to let the cash sit in the bank, a bank that isn’t Citigroup, JP Morgan, Bank of America. It may cost you a little bit a year, but I really think that having cash available to put to use at some point in the next 5 years (probably a lot sooner) will prove as a very wise use of capital if you have a cost of capital less than 10%. If I had a lot of dollars sitting in the bank, I’d be very concerned about the erosion of purchasing power.