CBEH end of 2012 would be
$2 EPS ~ $103M net income
$5.73 in cash
… and their return on invested dollars is roughly 33%, payback period roughly 2 years.
so for every $1 they invest, they get $0.33 the next year and $0.66 the following year.. following year repeating
so, you figure at any point in time they could convert $1 in cash to $0.66 in earnings 2 years later.
so right now after all expense they have $88.3M cash – $13M for working capital (88.3 – (50-37 for hainan)) = $75.3M cash to work with that’s not tied up.
that’s $1.44/share
so you figure if they start converting that.
right now their eps for 2011 is roughly $1.33 and for 2012 is $2.00.
if they convert $1 of cash to eps, they get
$1.33 eps 2011, $2.33 eps 2012, $2.66 eps 2013
if they convert next years earnings of $2 into eps.
you get $1.33 eps 2011, $2.33 eps 2012, $3.33 eps 2013, $4 eps 2014, anyway you see how this goes.
CBEH – FD share count 2011 eps
sept 30 2010:
43.96 mill
2.1+3.5 (capital raise)
1.1 + 1.7 (warrants)
=
49.56-52.36M shares
cash:
79M sept 30 2010
15.3+24.7 (capital raise)
7.65+12.9 warrant
=
119M-$139.55M+12M for Q4 earnings-25.7M spent in Q4 for acquisitions = $125.3 Right now – 37M for hainan = 88.3M of cash after all of the planned expenses.
Management expects to report sales of $435 million and net income of $53.5 million for the full year ended December 31, 2010.
that is EPS of $1
Cash of $2.39 (End of 2010 with capital raises – spent Q4)
Stock Price $6 (current)
for 2011 i’m figuring that
cash – 37M for hainan
435M of revenues + (below)
40/140M of revenues from hainan, 84M 2012 140M 2013
45M chongquing
21M new facility in Tongchuan
x
.128 net margin (this is actually off.. and is a lowball estimate upon reflection within the 15 minute guideline)
$70M Net income
=$1.33 EPS
=$3.73 in cash
that would be my proformas
cash analysis continued