glen’s notes at the bottom of this copypasta
The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2014, released this week, forecasts that WTI will average $98.50 — basically a continuance of 2013’s prices.
I believe the majority of analysts have gotten carried away with the U.S. tight oil euphoria and are underestimating global demand growth. If OPEC output is going to remain subdued, and non-OPEC supply increases less than than the IEA’s expected 1.7 mb/d, then spare capacity could fall sufficiently far to put upward pressure on prices. I also expect the Fed to approach the “taper” cautiously, and back off from it if they see any indication that economic growth is slowing.
As for headline risk, analysts generally aren’t talking it up anymore, which in itself is worrisome. After several years of major geopolitical events that didn’t exert strong or long-lasting effects on oil prices, I wonder if we haven’t become too complacent about that factor. But at the moment I don’t see any major risks on the horizon, so headline risk doesn’t carry much weight in my forecast for 2014 either, though I do see increasing risk from 2015 onward.
Therefore I am sticking with my June 2012 call that oil prices will remain bound by the “narrow ledge,” holding Brent prices between $105 and $125 for most of the year. The actual low for Brent in 2013 was $96.84 and the actual high was $118.90, but the price was only below $105 for 58 days of the 49 weeks thus far. Generally, I expect prices to rise and sit more solidly within the “narrow ledge” range in 2014, with a few possible spikes over $125.
I am also sticking with my forecast that in late 2014/early 2015 the “Goldilocks” period of relatively stable prices we have enjoyed since 2010 will come to an end, kicking off another phase of volatility as oil tries to reprice higher to accommodate the rising share of expensive unconventional oil.
Therefore, I am breaking with the crowd and forecasting higher, not lower, oil prices. In 2014, I expect Brent prices to average $112/bbl. For WTI, my target is $103.
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alright. so, i actually think that this guy is pretty balanced and is probably right.
I am a fan of his hocus pocus, so to speak, and the implications are pretty simple… to me anyway… and basically, hello mr. danger. quick quick
http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart oil price chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6SultVxk/ price of the CAD to USD
https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX s&p500 — drag this out to 10 years or so.
so look at these charts. the first thing you’ll notice, (and i am a subscriber to 2004 being peak oil by the way) and also I believe that the 2008-2009 market crash was an effect of higher oil prices forcing employees in america and abroad to choose to fill up their gas tank instead of pay their mortgage.
so, note in 2005-2009. gas prices increased and basically took the legs out of the global economy.. and then when the economy fell over, gas prices stabilized and continued to chart that course higher… and now oil is less available more or less.
so markets peaked in mid-2007 and crashed in 2008-2009.
oil took off mid-2007 and peaked june 2008, basically the point at which the market really broke down.
so anyway the point is that, if this guy is right, and i think he probably is based on my brief understanding of the way the world works knowing full well that I am an idiot, the price of oil should be stable to increasing gradually in 2014.. and then susceptible to upwards price spikes in 2015.
this, if true, will keep a lid on interest rates.
this, if true, will put a floor under the CAD because they export oil to the USA.
this, if true, will take a dump on the stock market and the market at 1800 on the S&P500 is overvalued and overbought and will take a massive deuce.
here is a video on crazy people talking, but more or less i think has some real stuff
the funny part is that these guys talk about china like there is legitimacy to their expansion.. haha, china is such a piece of flaming turd.
yeah, so anyway, i am thinking that this guy is more or less probably right and look forward to the dump. that puts a market top in 2014. ugh, i hate saying that.
