Disclosure: I am short BBRY. I am short through put options (More…)

My article yesterday about BlackBerry (BBRY) titled “Fairfax Financial’s Debt Investment In BlackBerry Could Wipe Out Shareholders” sparked a lot of debate with questions and issues raised in the comments section. I decided to write a follow up article to answer some of these questions.

Issue #1 and #2: There are many interested bidders for BlackBerry, including Cerberus Capital, and to compare BlackBerry to the Yellow Pages business is ludicrous.

My interest was piqued as soon as I heard that BlackBerry founders were talking to Cerberus about a bid for the company. It was a trip down memory lane for me and somewhat ironic given that some BlackBerry longs found my comparison to the Yellow Pages business to be unreasonable. My article titled “AT&T Dumps Yellow Pages Business: What This Means For Yellow Pages In Canada” talks about Cerberus Capital Management buying AT&T’s (T) Yellow Pages business last year.

Cerberus has a focus of investing in distressed assets, and I wouldn’t think a bid from a vulture investment firm would exactly spark investor excitement. Referring to my article you can see that Cerberus paid a 1.74 EBITDA multiple for the Yellow Pages business and many people felt that they overpaid.

No matter how much BBRY supporters believe that the stock is undervalued, the facts will tell you otherwise. Despite the fact that BBRY’s stock price has tanked over the last several years the company is still not trading at a level which could be referred to as distressed or at a bargain. According to Yahoo Finance, BBRY has an Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) metric of 6.5 at a stock price of $6.51 as its $1.01B enterprise value is met with $156M of EBITDA, which most people will agree is headed south at least in the short term.

When we talk about Cerberus buying out BBRY and we refer to the price they paid for AT&T’s Yellow Pages business, it does not leave a lot of hope for the bullish side. A 1.74 EBITDA multiple is a far cry from the 6.5 multiple someone would have to pay to buy out BBRY at Thursday’s closing price. For Cerberus to be a serious bidder for BBRY, the stock price has to drop A LOT further from $6.50.

As far as the Yellow Pages comparison being ludicrous, in some ways I agree because the BlackBerry business is actually worse in its current state. I think most objective people will agree that from a brand perspective and consumer perception, BlackBerry smartphones and the Yellow Pages advertising print book are seen as relics of the past and are “uncool” or “inferior” today, with the difference being that the Yellow Pages business had a few decades longer of a successful run. In that sense they are equivalent.

But referring again to my Yellow Pages article, at the time of the purchase AT&T’s Yellow Pages business had a year-over-year decline in revenue of 16% with a 31% EBITDA margin. Canada’s Yellow Pages, now referred to as Yellow Media (OTC:YLWDF), at the time had a 51% EBITDA margin on a year-over-year decline in revenue of 5% (since then the revenue decline has increased before becoming stable). Referring toBBRY’s disastrous financials from August, we see that revenue declined from $2,861M in the same period in 2012 to $1,573M in 2013 for a 45% decline. EBITDA margin is greatly skewed to the negative thanks to the large write-off they took during the quarter, but the adjusted loss from continuing operations was $248M and it excludes the $1B charge. Adding back depreciation of $171M to this amount leads to an EBITDA of -$77M or -5%. Although the comparison is for just one quarter, most people agree that in the foreseeable future BBRY will achieve similar poor operating results in its business. When we compare everything objectively by the numbers, the Yellow Pages business are vastly superior to BlackBerry in terms of EBITDA margin and slower revenue decline. So if comparing the businesses are ludicrous, I would suggest the ludicrous aspect of it sides with BlackBerry.

Even if you don’t like the Yellow Pages comparison, there are a bunch tech firms out there which have been much more successful as of late than BBRY which trade at a EV/EBITDA multiple equivalent or lower than BBRY. Symantec Corporation (SYMC) trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.4 at a stock price of $22.83. Cisco Systems (CSCO) trades at anEV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5 at a stock price of $23.11. Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.5 at a stock price of $25.69. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) trades at an EV/EBITDA multipleof 7.4 at a stock price of $37.50.

BlackBerry supporters often talk about the value in the company’s patents. Well, Wi-Lan Inc. (WILN), a company known for its hoarding of patents, trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.6 at a stock price of $3.18. Finally, BBRY’s former arch-rival Apple (AAPL) trades at anEV/EBITDA multiple of 8 at a stock price of $512.49. It is scary to see how expensive BBRY is compared to its peers given that they are all in a revenue growth or stabilization stage and BBRY is in steep decline.

Investors bullish on BlackBerry would have very little evidence supported by facts and numbers that would support their case that the stock is cheap. What they often go on is the fact that the stock price has tanked a lot, Prem Watsa appears to love the business (just like he loved the newspaper businesses) and there is some vague value attached to BBRY’s patents that implies the possibility of a buyout at an ever lower price as time goes on.

Issue #3: I, or other bears claim that the business is worthless.

I never said that the business is worthless. I said that the stock has a good chance of becoming worthless as there is now debt on the books which outrank the shareholders. There is a big difference. Let’s take the Cerberus Yellow Pages example. If BBRY were to be valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.75 just like Yellow Pages in a liquidation scenario in three years and all cash was exhausted, assuming that EBITDA remains at around $150M, BBRY’s enterprise value would be around $270M. Shareholders would be wiped out and even the debtholders only get 27 cents on the dollar. But the business would not be worthless. Just the shares.

Let’s use a much kinder example. Assuming in three years BBRY has $1B left in cash, an EBITDA of $200M and is valued with an EBITDA multiple of 5. The total purchase value would be $2 billion – one each for the cash and the business. The debtholders would be paid first which would leave $1B for the 514M shares outstanding, or less than $2 per share and that doesn’t factor in the share dilution that will take place for bringing in John Chen or the $250M break fee (more on those pieces next).

Issue #4: John Chen will be the savior of Blackberry

From what I have read, John Chen appears to be a perfectly capable leader. He may be able turn the business around. But I have several issues with his hiring. First off, his compensation package is ridiculously high, especially considering he has the word interim attached to his position. The good news for BBRY shareholders is that his annual salary is a reasonable $1M a year. But with bonuses and stock incentives his total compensation could exceed $85M. Put it in this perspective – one of Muddy Waters claims against NQ mobile (NQ) was that Omar Khan was fronting for the company and was overpaid to do so with nearly $100M in stock incentives. John Chen will be compensated nearly as much.

In my blog I called out Farifax’s bid on BBRY as a ploy to exit its position or slow the bleed on BBRY’s stock price. We know the company has a history of making headlines just to get the attention off of BBRY’s horrible financial performance. I believe the hiring of John Chen is just another ploy to slow the eventual tank of the stock price as it gives some investors hope of a turnaround. The overpayment in terms of stock incentives and the interim moniker attached to him as BlackBerry’s new chief suggests that it took a lot of arm twisting for him to be convinced to take the position and that he is very cautious and non-committal about it.

Who would offer someone a job that pays out $85M in total compensation and structure that compensation to ensure they stay at least 5 years yet demand that they be termed the “interim CEO”? That makes no sense. The demand to be referred to as an interim leader very likely came from John Chen himself and that is to provide himself with an easy escape to keep his reputation intact in case he thinks that BBRY is in too deep of a mess to be saved.

Issue #5: BBRY has $4B, $5B or whatever much higher amount of cash than my claim and I am being far too pessimistic about BBRY’s cash position.

No, they don’t. If an investor is to talk about BBRY’s cash, they MUST talk about net cash. There are $3B of liabilities that must be settled in cash in the near future. The $1B cash influx from the debenture has an offsetting liability associated with it, and has a coupon payment of $60M a year in addition to the operating losses that the company will experience in the coming quarters. It is NOT a gain in net cash, really it’s more of a tool for Fairfax and associates to extract whatever value that they can from the company. As far as the $1B in tax refunds – until that is on a balance sheet as a reasonably collectible asset, that asset is speculative.

Issue #6: Fairfax is not investing in 100% of the debenture, and my conspiracy theory that they are going to take under company makes no financial sense to them.

I always referred to the deal as Fairfax and associates. I was well aware that Fairfax alone wasn’t the only investor. As far as the math and logic behind it – anyone who follows mining companies on the TSX knows a lot of large investors have lost a lot on paper in their equity stake. Many of them will know that a popular way to recoup those losses is to let the company go under, then purchase its assets in a CCAA proceeding. Retail investors don’t think the same way as large investors. Retail investors buy shares in a stock. Large investors buy businesses and/or assets. They are relatively indifferent whether that is through a buyout or minority purchase on the equity market or through a bankruptcy sale. My article from yesterday shows that Fairfax has a propensity to buy up distressed debt in order to gain an equity stake in the restructured company. In a restructuring the assets are often unchanged – it’s only the corporate structure and financing that is different.

Regarding the math itself – Fairfax owns a 10% stake in BBRY. A situation in which shareholders are completely wiped out and debtholders get 100% of the equity in a newly restructured company, Fairfax would see their equity stake rise to 25% as that is the portion of the bonds they are invested in. They win. Retail investors mistakenly think because Fairfax will take a big loss on the shares that the company would never allow this scenario to happen. In reality, a wipeout of its BBRY equity stake and restructuring would provide Fairfax with some nice tax loss credits along with an increased stake in BBRY assets. Fairfax has as much incentive to see equity shareholders get wiped out as they do to see BBRY turn it around. This along with the $250M break fee was a brilliant set up by the company so that it makes money no matter what happens to BlackBerry, all on the backs of minority shareholders.

Issue #7: I am just a shorter and I want the company to fail/personal attacks on me.

I do not *want* BlackBerry to fail any more than any other company out there. BlackBerry IS failing and all I’m doing is calling it out on its failure. There are thousands of investing options for me to choose from and out of the few I decide to take, a BBRY short position through put options is one of them. I have shown in my last two articles that BBRY has a much worse cash position than what many people believe, its burn rate is high, when comparing to its tech peers it is not cheap, its business is on a similar path to Yellow Media which dropped in stock price from well over $5 to a few pennies in less than two years, its most vocal bullish significant shareholder has a history of investing in distressed assets in which the equity went to zero, and the company has extremely weak corporate governance where Fairfax has managed to set up a situation where it makes money whether or not the company survives under the BBRY symbol and where it has to pay an enormous compensation package to an interim CEO. What is there not to like about shorting this company?

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  • Yaawwnn… all is about expectation and of course media. I believe there is no more downside at 6$/ per share. I am just waiting the official numbers in december. I am holding my shares and call options. 2014 will be an interesting year for blackberry and shareholders

    8 Nov, 09:20 AMReply! Report AbuseLike9
  • good comment Mike Trader, I think it was Warren Buffett, the richest investor of all time, who stated: “I like to buy them on the operating table”
    John Templeton said buy at the point of maximum pessimism–
    so don’t know about the bottom but we certainly have been close to operating tables and pessimism

    8 Nov, 10:44 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3
  • I think you have to understand that this is a catchy slogan above a much more strenuous investment process.1.2m US companies went bankrupt this year…. Buffett dodged all of them. What makes you think Blackberry is not one of the 1.2m others that were at the point of ‘maximum pessimism’ then went to ‘maximum shareholder loss’

    http://1.usa.gov/HLhRGl

    8 Nov, 11:08 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • how about because of BB’s ever-growing patent trove, their secure messaging system (only one in world that I know of), their real estate holdings, foothold in the automotive sector with QNX for starters?

    8 Nov, 11:31 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • Yeah but that was your argument for it worth +$20……

    8 Nov, 11:43 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Valuation these days appears to be all about sentiment…look at twitter…BBM’s 80 Million users should make it worth 8B based on TWTR’s valuation.I am a long player. I don’t care what the shares of BBRY are trading at right now because I know they have been shorted like crazy and that everyone is operating under the false assumption that they have nothing of value to offer.

    That can, and will, change.

    It may take another year or two, but you can change the underlying assets that the company has. Now with an experienced executive in charge (both Watsa and Chen) and their connections, I expect that next year at this time $20/share won’t seem so outlandish….

    8 Nov, 12:14 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • No, valuation is expectation of future earnings. I’m afraid these excuses of ‘I’m a long player’ just don’t cut it.My fund is currently 80% long and 20% short and we are always net long, but I realise that I actually need to invest in stocks that make money.

    I just hope you haven’t put all your eggs into this basket-case stock

    8 Nov, 12:31 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • There are a lot of positive developments with BBRY of late to justify my long position….I have patience and time ( I hope!)we will see.

    8 Nov, 12:40 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • Regarding your net cash position, how are you calculating it, the company has -244m working capital excluding any further writeoff in inventory (which is likely)….if they write off all inventory and setlle their working capital, it doesn’t look like this will take the entirety of the cash injection.Also, adding to that, now the shares have dropped it seems that the company has shrunk into distressed valuation. I see mcap of $3.1bn, cash of $2.3bn and of course the debt doesn’t impact ev, so it seems we now have a company trading 1x historic EV/EBITDA and probably 2x if you include cash burn….

    As you know I am bearish but I think I may go long depending on the new direction, $1bn enterprise value seems super cheap considering the money they make on enterprise and software…

    Great article once more

    8 Nov, 09:21 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • I agree with you regarding where BBRY is heading right now. I don’t believe you are out of line in your assessment in this or your previous article.However, with the right management team, it is not impossible to end up with a slow, steady turn around so long as it is coupled with some more strategic downsizing and specific market targeting.

    If you look at the new Twitter stock, it is interesting to note the amount of positive spin in the market for that stock offering when considering their current financial position. What company is in the better position right now BBRY or Twitter from a numbers standpoint? Which stock could gain income sooner? Which stock would be easier to direct at this point in time? The negative market spin on BBRY has never been at deserved levels, but I believe has had a devastating effect on BBRY never the less. A savy BBRY management would be able to address this ultra negative market perception as job one.

    Note to readers: I have been wrong every step of the way in reading the BBRY stock to date and am thinking of adopting George Kastanza’s “opposite” decision making if nothing changes soon.

    8 Nov, 09:30 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Please do not compare those two companies.

    8 Nov, 01:01 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • There is very little downside for John Chen here. People assume the company is beyond repair, which may be accurate. He gets a big pay package and his comp. will still be quite nice even if the equity value deteriorates by half or more from here. Presumably he was an advisor at Silver Lake looking for a next ceo gig in a PE deal. This is a pretty good alternative based on the deal he negotiated. If he does somehow save it, he will cement a legacy of being an unbelievably great turnaround artist and a hero in Canada. Any failure and people will say the company was too far gone anyway. The investor list wasn’t that impressive. Basically every major Canadian pension fund said no and no U.S. investor of note. Brookfield is really sharp but $50mm debt piece is not big for them.

    8 Nov, 09:33 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • “Full list of companies that invested $1 billion into BlackBerry”http://bit.ly/1bdmF1J

    8 Nov, 09:58 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • thanks Frank, looks good to me, Markel and Brookfield are A+ long term players

    8 Nov, 10:19 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • References to EBITDA so much really makes me shudder. Anyways, just would likely point out that $156 million EBITDA is low because the T was actually a recovery instead of expense like most of companies you mentioned. It is likely Blackberry will have more benefits from recovery of income taxes. For the last 2 quarters. it had $550 million of recovery income taxes. For last 4 quarters, it had $900 million in recovered income taxes. Also like to point out that tax credits for its R&D programs also serve adds to that recovery of taxes.Doing the math on trading 15% more ownership for $900 million (book value of his 10% stake) is questionable for me if BBRY goes the CCAA route (chapter 11 in Canada). He has better chance to just improve the operations and increase his ownership to 12% thru converting and benefit from that upside. That said, it could still happen if BBRY’s financial worsen, he did partially hedge himself that way. Nonetheless, it appears it would be optimal if he avoids wiping out current equity holders (including his own 10% stake)

    8 Nov, 09:35 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • why exactly does EBITDA make you shudder?

    8 Nov, 09:36 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • You are brilliant Sir but get ready for the barrage of cheap insults that will be coming your way. I have always wanted to add a comment on BBrs definition of shorts as some evil minions with black hearts trying to destroy their beloved. Your last paragraph has articulated that for me. Again…brilliant.

    8 Nov, 09:35 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • I think many of the comments are excellent that are not working for the hedge funds–many of the articles are suspect IMO–talking book for someone–Reminds me of the Bible verse: “Be wise as serpeants and harmless as doves”

    8 Nov, 09:43 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • Brilliant, another one who thinks that Seeking Alpha is a force that moves the market considering ADV is $50m – $200m

    8 Nov, 09:48 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • I think shorting this stock is very risky. What happens to your analysis when they announce a sale of the patents and handset manufacturing business for a pile of cash similar to Nokia? The upside to a service/security only company with cash will become very clear to you quickly.

    8 Nov, 09:47 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • There would be no “service/security” business without their patents

    8 Nov, 04:39 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • “‘We wanted to take the ‘For Sale’ sign down, get John Chen as executive chairman’ – Prem Watsa”http://bit.ly/1d3Rh5a

    BlackBerry will be BlackBerry and it will not be sold!

    8 Nov, 09:49 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • Very interesting perspective and raises many valid points that should be considered… HOWEVER, anyone reading this needs to take into account that the article (similar to others on this site which are promoting the pro’s of investing in BBRY) is slanted by the writers person beliefs regarding the subject.That said, one real beef I have with the article was harping on that John Chen has only been announced as being the “interim CEO”. What was announced was that John Chen was the new chairman and would be interim CEO until a new CEO could be named.

    It could be the case that someone else is lined up but can’t be announced yet due to their current position OR that they are giving Chen the power to recruit his own CEO. I suspect the later… it would be foolish for current management to handicap Chen when he is being brought in as the ‘turnaround guru’ by appointing a new CEO without his input since the two men are going to have to work closely together.

    From organizational behavior it may also be that Chen plans to take on the role of ‘acting CEO’ and do the dirty work that hatchet man need to do to turn a company around, then once the dirty work is done take a back seat just providing general oversight as chairman bringing in someone else at that time for the CEO position.

    It is rare that anyone manager is able to switch hats – hatchet man to rebuilder – due to the nature of the two roles and the enemies made when in the hatch role since to play the role well you need to take a heavy hand even with sacred cows within an organization.

    Considering that Chen is not going to be the CEO, I am a little concerned with how rich a package he has received. The package works out to $20M per year if he stays the full 5 years (once stock options are worked in) which is high for just a chairman. Although it only places him in the middle of the pack of the top 100 highest paid executives (and about the same income as the CEO of General Electric) it will place him as the 4th highest paid Chairman in North America and sets the stage for BlackBerry to have to pay an even higher salary for a new CEO when they recruit one since it is rare that the CEO is paid less than the Chairman.

    It begs the question how much more are they planning to pay the new CEO when announced?

    8 Nov, 09:49 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  •  You make valid points here about Chen recruiting his own man with the counterpoint being that BBRY is going to have to pay him handsomely as well. My point about Chen was more opinion than fact. Only time will tell to see what the outcome is. Still, if he wanted an out, he’s got one with the interim moniker.

    12 Nov, 01:23 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • “I do not *want* BlackBerry to fail any more than any other company out there.”How much do you want other companies to fail?

    All the analysis and information available doesn’t infringe on the great unknowns and unexpecteds. Else there’d be very little trading.

    I find it interesting how active the BB articles here are compared to others. The opposite of love isn’t hate but indifference.

    8 Nov, 09:50 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  •  None. Outside of my put options there is no personal benefit to me wanting BBRY to fail. But because I believe they will fail, might as well make some money on it. The Kitchener-Waterloo area is a nice place, I wouldn’t want to see it turn into the next Detroit because one of the largest employers fail. I believe Blackberry the corporation will live on much like GM did, under a new corporate structure once shareholders get wiped out.The biggest danger in reasoning from longs is this idea that shorts are just out to bash the company. Some might be, but I would suggest that most are like me. Taking a look at the latest financial performance and taking advantage of an easy short play. It wasn’t the bears who determined BBRY was to miss revenue projections by half. That was on the company and from lack of consumer demand. no amount of bashing is as effective as the company’s own spiral downhill.

    10 Nov, 04:12 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • So what are all the big Brokerages pumping Twitter on?…. Fumes. There is nothing there but a name that they like …and the potential to rape other investors because the perception is that they may turn over some dollars.
    How about you give me all the reasons why Twitter is such a good investment?

    10 Nov, 08:15 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  •  Why would I do that? I am not long on Twitter. If all companies were directly valued at Twitter current multiples the NASDAQ would probably be at 10k!

    12 Nov, 01:25 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • short is the way to go
    TH had a vision and generated a turn around- i had a reason to be long
    under his rule the stock almost tripled
    his only mistake was being late and going too big with the z10- it’s not his fault there was no demand for the z10
    but look at what you have now- PW and chen- prems only motivation is to make up for his losses
    and chen is a good guy but latest rumor has it he wants to turn bb into a software vendor which will make BB worth even less and dissapoint alot of consumers and by less i mean 2/share
    there are plenty of software vendors around
    BB can continue to make profit on hardware but on lower volume-
    either way management have themselves insured so they have no reason to do a good job
    with all the debt question is whats is the true value here?
    bbry still has 70mil users/patents/cash
    i believe it can continue to survive but if poor decision are made
    which may even happen with this type of management than the party is over
    next earnings report is key

    8 Nov, 09:56 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • “BlackBerry has no plans to shut down handset business”http://bit.ly/195c04e

    8 Nov, 10:10 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • false rumors than

    8 Nov, 10:27 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Aren’t the $3B of liabilities future part buy commitments? BBRY can cancel those buy commitments if necessary. This will make your comments pointless at the most.

    8 Nov, 09:58 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  •  Anything on the balance sheet refers to items which have occurred in the past and are ongoing (need to be paid), not future obligations. Future purchase obligations which have not resulted in cash outlays or change in possession of goods are all off-balance sheet.

    10 Nov, 04:06 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • “BlackBerry could wind up with over $4 billion in cash”http://bit.ly/195b0x9

    8 Nov, 10:04 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  •  This garbage analysis promotes falsehoods that longs erroneously hold on to. I laid out BBRY’s cash position quite clearly in my previous article, with links to the balance sheet. Even with the tax refund in full (which is still very much in dispute until its listed on the balance sheet as collectible by the accountants), BBRY has no where near $4B in cash. They have unquestionably $3B in short term liabilities that will result in cash outflows and another $1B in debt. Where can anyone come up with the calculation that shows BBRY will have $7B or $8B in cash to come up with the $4B in net cash as stated in this article.No, this guy is just stating total cash which is a complete fallacy. By that logic I could get a million dollar loan then claim I am a millionaire?

    10 Nov, 04:18 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • Sorry I missed the discussion. How much cash does Twitter have?

    10 Nov, 08:17 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Loon, why do you keep citing Twitter valuation?
    BlackBerry is what it is, independent of Twitter.Oh, I think I get it.
    You think BlackBerry could/should have some crazy high valuation too especially when Blackberry has real value and Twitter doesn’t. This is it, isn’t it? lol

    Let it go, that argument will only bring you grief.

    10 Nov, 09:05 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • guy has a losing investment and then blames everyone but the culprits

    11 Nov, 07:03 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • I bring up Twitter because you guys should sell your positions and go over there to spread your knowledge. 16% in the last 2 days you could have. You aren’t going to make any more money shorting BB at this time. I’m just trying to help you guys out.

    11 Nov, 11:53 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • So we should consider accrued expenses and payables but should not consider receivables (2.34 bln $) and inventories (just short of 1 bln $), isn’t it?It’s very interesting, let’s call it ‘a surreal equity analysis’, trasforming a current ratio of 1.72 into negative working capital.
    Can I suggest to also consider only the new debt they are now assuming and do not consider the corresponding cash infusion?

    So you can have your cake and eat it too!

    11 Nov, 02:04 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  •  Three issues with that. I only short through buying put options. I never get into an investment where the return could potentially be more than -100%. TWTR has no options right now. Second, you can’t even short TWTR right now, at least that’s the note I got from my broker (a Canadian one, not sure if the US is subject to these restrictions too). Third, I am far less familiar with TWTR’s business than BBRY’S and don’t feel confident in my ability to write a worthwhile article on it, one way or the other, at this moment. Look at my profile to see the company I work for. It should give you some indication that I have industry knowledge.

    12 Nov, 01:30 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  •  I have fully outlined all working capital items including those you have brought up here:http://seekingalpha.co…

    12 Nov, 01:32 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Edward,Nice response to the comments you rec’d.

    I have friends who regularly tackle home improvement projects on their own. So when their driveway became a pond during every rainy part of the winter, they rented a backhoe, bought the specialized perforated pipe and screened gravel and installed their own curtain drain. I was impressed, of course.

    But it was the telling that was always the best part as these stories always had complications and unexpected delays. Their rationale was always:

    1. How much could it cost
    2. How long would it take?
    3. Really, how hard could it be?

    They are almost never correct on any of the three. In this case there was rock a few inches down, the pipe not flexible enough and the backhoe had to be rented for 10 days instead of a three-day weekend. I think of them often when contemplating something beyond my skill level.

    I fear the easy turnaround for BlackBerry has the same obstacles. Some want to flush out the old unpopular phones at breakeven on the retail market so users can enjoy the BBRY experience. I see a problem as the new models were rejected when priced at the higher end. Consumers in that segment looked and deliberately chose Apple or Samsung instead. Those unwilling to spend $500-700 would have chosen an LG or a more basic Android device.

    If the phones were offered at a cut-rate price of $250 it would be a bargain in that price sector but users who went for it would never see a similarly featured BlackBerry in that price range again. More sophisticated users would suspect the motive was to dump the phones on the market before they became obsolete.

    It has been 4 months since the BBRY story started its most recent melt. An IT professional would need to be a monk to have missed the saga and not have doubts about whether BBRY will continue to be a reliable provider of enterprise communications. They are for sale! No, a director is buying them out! Or Lenovo or IBM or Papa John’s… Or maybe we’ll figure this out on our own.

    If you talk to an Apple user, they are almost always boastfully loyal about their products. Samsung, not so much, but sort of in line with the old duopoly between Ford and General Motors. If you own one you are likely to stick with it.

    With this PR mess, it is hard to imagine how BlackBerry will present itself as a well-differentiated choice to the slice of the market willing to make a change. Some say security after the confirmations of government eavesdropping. I’ve seen that mentioned here a hundred times – in real life not at all. “Hon. Don’t forget Janie’s game at 4:00.” is not the stuff of spy legends.

    It is easy to see this situation going either way. But like my friends, to get it right will cost more, take longer and be a LOT harder than everyone thinks.

    8 Nov, 10:26 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3
  • Blackberry is more likely to be purchase by another tech company after it is cleaned up and streamlined; not now.

    8 Nov, 02:40 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • “Blackberry is more likely to be purchase by another tech company after it is cleaned up and streamlined”But what about the phones and OS that nobody wants?

    No amount of cleaning up and streamlining will solve that.

    8 Nov, 04:41 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • @Knowitall. …”the phones that nobody wants” plus the 30k plus BES10 installs and the 5 to 7 billion in revenue for a bad year. That is a lot of “nobodies” buying Blackberry Products. Absolutely love that stock line from know-it-all Bears. With the right leadership, focus and Marketing….soon Nobody will have anything or anytime to bother with the Nobody Shorts.

    8 Nov, 05:43 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Gout,Wouldn’t it be fair to say that the majority of those 30 thousand BES10 installs are in fact free enterprise evaluations?

    And wouldn’t it also be fair to say that these enterprise evaluations will be influenced by the tsunami of bad news and difficult times surrounding BlackBerry?

    I wouldn’t start counting chickens just yet.

    8 Nov, 05:54 PMReply! Report AbuseLike3
  • @Knowitall. Where does the “tsunami of bad news” gain it’s roots?
    Isn’t that really the story here? I am not counting chickens. The louder the negativity and stronger the calls for this company’s demise, the more convinced I am that they will survive and make a positive difference in the world of Mobile. Every Blackberry hater, shorter, ect. Is COUNTING on decision makers/consumers/IT guys to not choose Blackberry offerings. ” Don’t buy Blackberry ….they won’t be around soon…” Sound Familiar??

    8 Nov, 09:04 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • No one is going to buy Blackberry as a going concern. Blackberry has become an irrelevant company with an irrelevant product. The only real interest in the company is for some of its patents and possibly BBM, but those two assets will not fetch anywhere near what many investors are hoping for…certainly nowhere near $9 per share, which is exactly why Fairfax was unable to secure the financing needed in order to be able to follow through with its offer.

    8 Nov, 10:27 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • That explanation is a little off-base.The reason Fairfax didn’t go through with it is they had no intention of doing so. TH was brought into launch three products and get the staff complement changed to the launch into mobile computing. The staff hired in the past 3 years is not the same group being laid off now. Think about the implications of that.

    It does not seem to be well appreciated that a company making a long term and fundamental shift because of an evolving market has to do it in a managed fashion while servicing the existing customer base (which uses BES and BIS).

    When the first really popular BB was launched a few years ago with an Intel chip, Intel really let them down on supplies and they were unable to meet the extraordinary demand.

    ‘Never again’ they swore. So the boys responsible over-reacted this time with securing supplies. So they are overstocked. Big deal. Hold a blow-out sale and book the loss.

    There was a material loss involved both times. There was market share loss over what could have been. Next time hopefully they will get it Goldilocks-right, that time being the Z30 and its follow-ons. The form factor is perfect for Asia and it has the horsepower and battery to work for mobile computer solutions. BBM is a major part of that.

    Chen needs to reign in some of the loose cannons that deviate from the core plan, a plan long in the execution, which is to create (recreate) the enterprise that is well grounded for the cloud-based future, while retaining the device management capability that is its core product. Hardware can be contracted from a dozen places. Core patents are not so easy to come by, as Google found out. BBRY is sitting on a stash of them.

    8 Nov, 10:58 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4
  • Crispin!”So they are overstocked. Big deal. Hold a blow-out sale and book the loss.”

    There is a reality-check quote sometimes used in American politics – “A billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money.” You should not disregard BlackBerry’s weakening financial position so lightly. This continuing debacle in handsets has closed the major source of company revenue.

    It makes one wonder if the next generation of phones will not be Samsung devices that boast of having “BlackBerry Inside” much the way PC’s used to indicate Intel.

    If there is not some clarity – and soon – about what The Plan might be, it won’t matter who was hired first or last.

    8 Nov, 11:20 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • The reason the Fairfax deal was shelved was not due to lack of financing but because Watsa recognized that saddling the company with debt was not going to help the turnaround.

    8 Nov, 11:36 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • “Watsa recognized that saddling the company with debt was not going to help the turnaround.”…He JUST saddled the company with debt…do you even think before you type?

    8 Nov, 11:46 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • @ LYogi”The reason the Fairfax deal was shelved was not due to lack of financing but because Watsa recognized that saddling the company with debt was not going to help the turnaround.”

    Without a substantial increase in revenue, the $1 billion debt that Blackberry just took on is more than enough to send the company into Bankruptcy within the next 6-9 months.

    Blackberry does not have a viable plan for going forward. Taking on debt will only delay the inevitable as so many companies have found out the hard way. Nortel and Palm are just two such examples. Fairfax knew this, as did those companies he approached to try and scrape up the $4.2 billion or so needed to buyout the company. The result…no one was interested. So PW moved to plan B so to speak. Lend the company $1 billion, then take over the company when it cannot repay, or else make a killing if by some fluke, it does well. Yes, PW is a very smart man…obviously much smarter than those BB supporters who believe that what PW does will be good for them.

    8 Nov, 11:53 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • @ Redrut 6% on a Billion is a lot more manageable than the leveraged buyout he was contemplating before.this is already old news and if you aren’t aware of it don’t hate me for your ignorance of the difference in dynamics between the proposed $9 fairfax bid and the 1B debenture!

    8 Nov, 12:16 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • @marcap, how do you know they don’t have a viable plan going forward?Have you not been listening to the shift to software and services that are making the rounds? Heck Bloomberg just published a positive outlook for the company now that Chen is on board: http://buswk.co/1abiWRf

    And have you not been aware that the company has drastically cut costs? or that they have a TON of Z10s they can sell for pure profit to build the user base in the coming quarters??

    8 Nov, 12:19 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • @ LYogi”@marcap, how do you know they don’t have a viable plan going forward?”

    Experience!

    “And have you not been aware that the company has drastically cut costs?”

    Cutting costs has little meaning when inventory write-offs far outweigh the savings realized from the company’s cost-cutting measures.

    “or that they have a TON of Z10s they can sell for pure profit to build the user base in the coming quarters??”

    Pure profit? Not in the least! That is only a deferral of revenue. Writing off inventory in one quarter which is later sold in a subsequent quarter will require either a restatement of the company’s financial statements for the period in which the write-off occurred, or else realizing 100% of the revenue in the quarter in which the units were actually sold. Either way, this would result in a full repayment of most if not all of the income tax which was previously refunded as a result of the write-down, not to mention the additional selling and admin costs associated with selling the written-off product.

    8 Nov, 12:37 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • You’re trying too hard to simplify the discussion and it doesn’t help. He actually “saddled the company” with an unsecured convertible debenture which is different from debt.

    8 Nov, 04:49 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • @marcap says:”Without a substantial increase in revenue, the $1 billion debt that Blackberry just took on is more than enough to send the company into Bankruptcy within the next 6-9 months.”

    1. These are seven year debentures

    2. These are ‘friendly’ creditors that would have no conceivable reason to force the company into bankruptcy

    8 Nov, 10:30 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • @ mapshop1@optonline.net”1. These are seven year debentures”

    “2. These are ‘friendly’ creditors that would have no conceivable reason to force the company into bankruptcy”

    How friendly do you think those creditors will be after Blackberry runs out of cash, and cannot pay the interest on those debentures?
    I would suspect about as friendly as any financial institution would be after a homeowner suddenly stops making payments on his mortgage, or a store owner stops making payments on his lease.

    8 Nov, 11:58 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • @marcap says:”How friendly do you think those creditors will be after Blackberry runs out of cash, and cannot pay the interest on those debentures?”

    Are you asking me if I think there’s a scenario where these debenture holders would force the company into bankruptcy?

    My answer is – No.

    9 Nov, 12:05 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • @Redrut
    PW infused BlackBerry with 1B in cash… it is not like he took money from the till! You mock Yogi, yet you don’t acknowledge what PW did for the company. They are now saddled with 1B in additional cash and 1B in debt. No worries, mate!
    Keep writing, Yogi… we’ll either get rich together or go broke together, but my shares are staying with me for some time to come. 🙂

    9 Nov, 12:43 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Minor point of clarification on the tax refund; income tax is not reduced/refunded when you only SAY you will have a loss (ie the book write-down). The loss is deductible only when you actually HAVE a loss (ie sell the product for less than cost). “Book” and “tax” income statements are keep separately and sometimes have significant timing differences.

    9 Nov, 09:39 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • You are trying to hard to see the wood from the treed an unsecured convertible debenture is debt. Please read some accounting books.If anything it’s worse than debt… pure debt (loans) do NOT take part in any upside, a convertible gets all the benefits of debt + the added benefit of participation at the expense of shareholders.

    Don’t let the term unsecured deceive you, an unsecured piece of debt ranks junior to secured debt which may be charged against an asset but this junior debt ranks above equity. Furthermore, they also have a negative covenant in there which stops BBRY issuing any more debt unless they get involved.

    Simple answer is, you don’t know what you are talking about if you can stand by that statement

    9 Nov, 10:24 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Re-read my comment please, I quite plainly understand accounting. I am now even neutral on BBRY and may actually buy some shares….
    …I just hate the fact that all of you blackberry zealots can’t admit this investment has failed. It’s like trying to convince Patrick Stewart that he has a luscious head of hair

    9 Nov, 10:26 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • the investment has swooned, not failed. a buyout at $9 would have been a cemented fail.the longs here that are so zealous in their support of the company know that the tide will turn because the underlying technology and platform is there and it is only a matter of time until the fruits are realized.

    9 Nov, 10:30 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • I understood your comment perfectly L Yogi.

    9 Nov, 03:05 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • @ MarcapAnd how is that different from any other company and any other lender? On a realistic note, the company has never needed debt before and will likely not need it now. I would suggest it is there to instill confidence that the company now has the backstop and depth for a turnaround. Blackberry have the right guy in Chen and now that the BB10 product line is gaining traction, there will be no need for additional cash.

    Further, once the google play apps become available to Blackberry, as is currently being rumored, BB10 sales are likely to gain huge momentum, albeit that the lack of apps is more a perception than a reality.

    9 Nov, 06:26 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • That’s right …I have Red Cross first Aid…I do Brain Surgery when I’m not busy.

    9 Nov, 06:33 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • And he just realized that after the 6 week DD period? C’mon, LYogi. That doesn’t pass the basic smell test. I’m currently long BBRY – but that kind of thinking is not going to help you.I didn’t think Prem Watsa was a liar. To be honest, I never followed him too much (I’m much more focused on the US even though I’m Canadian). But I was wrong. He is full of it and not to be trusted AT ALL. Not surprised, but I give a man a chance to prove himself before making my judgment. “Fool me once….”. Never to be trusted again. There is NO way to reconcile his stepping down from the board, signing an LOI, making those comments about funding and price, not doing the deal, and now this horsesh*t? heheheh. Ridiculous. Not only is he a liar, but he is not that clever either. He has made many amateurish mistakes with BBRY. They say he is the Canadian Buffett? Nonsense. Buffett does not conduct himself like this. Now, he is just trying to save face. He either couldn’t get financing, figured out a better scheme for himself, or something else that none of us is even aware of. Quite possibly ML’s consortium was going to force PW to take a loss. So why did the BOD shut down ML so quickly? Because the BOD is in PW’s pocket. End of story. I’m not sure WHY they are in his pocket – but they are. The idea that he suddenly saw the light and that all BBRY needed was a billion is laughable.

    What this BOD and PW just did to BBRY was a huge unforced error. Putting yourself up for sale – and then NOT actually selling yourself, is insane. Absolutely insane.

    The one thing that I have going for me – with a pretty low ACB – is that in order for PW to get those shares at $10, he has to push the SP through my cost far earlier. Odds are that the $10 conversion price is just another ruse – like the $9 LOI. But we’re at $6.50 and I need $8. I’d close it out except that I do think for one reason or another – mainly that the MMs will pump in to hurt retail shorts – I think I will be able to get that $1.50, call it a wash, and move on.

    10 Nov, 01:05 AMReply! Report AbuseLike6
  • Excellent post slick, and possibly one of the best $BBRY-Long posts ever.It’s refreshing to see some clear thinking on that side of the fence.

    10 Nov, 02:18 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Respectfully I beg to differ.My take on it is that like you I don’t believe wanted the company at $9. That was a stalking horse offer.

    He was hoping to attract bidders to save his investment. Well the (potential) bidders surfaced, the strategy worked. We learned that almost everybody was interested in something the company had up for sale. So we know the value is there.

    By Prem’s own words he explained how one of the directors saved BB by convincing the BOD not to break the company apart and instead to soldier on. The new deal means BB pays 140 million less in interest and that was a key factor in creating enough breathing room for the company to attempt a turnaround in the years ahead.

    Did you see the rumour that broke last night about 10.2.1 allowing for full access to Google Play store and having those Apps work natively on BB10? That is huge!

    Combine that with a JV with Lenovo or someone else to manufacture the hardware and now we are in business.

    Would you rather buy a cheaply made Samsung phone that is rife with security concerns or a BB10 device that is rock-solid secure and boasts a new platform that is already showing its incredible ability to expand?

    Long BBRY Short Samsung

    10 Nov, 10:20 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • @LYogi”Long BBRY Short Samsung”

    Okay, now I know you’re just messing with us.
    haha, good one!

    10 Nov, 02:30 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • “Did you see the rumour that broke last night about 10.2.1 allowing for full access to Google Play store and having those Apps work natively on BB10? That is huge!””Combine that with a JV with Lenovo or someone else to manufacture the hardware and now we are in business.”

    More wishful thinking, LYogi. Again, very dangerous. You’re just fantasizing about scenarios that will rescue your underwater long position. Be careful, my friend. Believe me, I want to see BBRY succeed for personal and other reasons, but no matter the trade or investment I try to keep a clear head and perspective.

    In addition to being a financial advisor for about 25 years, I also have a very strong tech background (it was my previous business). I won’t bore you with my credentials – just trust me. There’s no way Google is going to allow Blackberry access to Play unless it’s a Blackberry fully running android – not an android runtime. Period. You may not understand the technical – and far more important – LEGAL considerations.

    I believe both of those wishes of yours will never happen. Also, I think it is exactly the wrong direction anyway. Software and services is the key to any BBRY turnaround. Chen understands this. Forget about handsets. Irrelevant. That battle was lost and can never be won. Blackberry has a few areas of value. They need to leverage those areas. Look at the history of the PC business to see what is repeating in the mobile hardware space. It’s the software and services that counts. Repeating revenue model. How many PC manufacturers were there in the 80’s and ’90’s? How many are left standing today? Look at what IBM did. Look at what DELL is attempting to do. It’s obvious!

    I repeat: the BOD are morons for having put up the company for sale and then not following through. Did terrible damage to Blackberry. How can any large, corporate customer still trust these guys? Do you know how many corporate sales were put on hold or canceled because of this bonehead move? I am so disgusted.

    What *I* would rather buy is irrelevant. I am exactly the customer that Blackberry should NOT be targeting. (I have a Z10, btw). The question is: what are governments, the S&P500, and large organizations willing to pay Blackberry for? Whatever it is: provide it!

    10 Nov, 08:29 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • Well twitter a peice of paper for everyone to see and popular with the young crowd is valued at 23.6 b. BlackBerry has 1/3 of twitters users at BBM alone. And a lot of other assets.Only problem is corrupt management which seems to have been the case since 08 where they had the incentive for pumping the stock and did so.

    I no longer believe it makes sense to apply ordinary logic acounting or comparisons to the BB case. Whilst I don’t share the bears point of view in terms of valuation, they do have great help from management and constant shift of strategy or lack there of

    8 Nov, 10:35 AMReply! Report AbuseLike0
  • What makes any suggestion that BB is a failed company is Twitter. It has never made money and the big institutions ran the value up to 24$ over a business that has never made money. The retail guys are only going to get a crack at it now.
    BB has several prominent Canadian companies besides just the Pension funds. What the NEW BB is going to look like I have no idea.What I do know is that BB is not going to see 6$ again for a long time.
    The desperation among the shorts is palatable now. They have become paranoid mouth breathers, soon to be bleeding money into our pockets. No matter how this deal has diluted our shares or how much a few shorts have tried to manipulate this stock…TEN DOLLARS is just around the corner.
    Finish mopping the floor and throw out your Mopcap.

    8 Nov, 11:18 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • The new BlackBerry now is the Z30, a great looking 5″ phablet with a good good battery 🙂

    8 Nov, 11:35 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
  • The desperation among the shorts??? There isn’t any, the shorts have made huge profits!I really don’t understand how you can write this nonsense, you have bled all of YOUR money into THEIR pockets, bank accounts don’t lie, the price does NOT lie.

    If you can’t actually see that the shorters have made a fortune then you don’t deserve to write anything

    8 Nov, 11:48 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • It is never over until the Pleasantly Plump Lady sings. Thanks for not deleting my post!
    As you said the shorts Have made huge profits. That is past tense. I never lost anything…I never sold.
    There are however a couple of investor who shorted down to about 3$ and they are the ones who will bleed. They are still kicking around and are in denial.
    A lot of shorts said the company was bankrupt, going to disappear, the same as Palm….and all of you were wrong. WRONG!
    The next 3 quarters are going to be the easiest double I ever made. By next Sept. I will be back in black. Me and Ms. Keys will be singin’ the Blues for you…

    8 Nov, 12:17 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2
  • Did I mention desperation?

    8 Nov, 12:27 PMReply! Report AbuseLike1
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