Macau residential property prices were up 20% quarter over quarter in Q1, now averaging HK$7,200/sqft. Great news for MPO:LN and 184:HK. Keck Seng’s flats are now worth roughly 50% more from the last time they sold one in H1 2012. I’m pegging KS’s stake in properties held for sale in Macau at at least HK$2B and the Investment Properties in Macau at HK$1.2B, and that’s not taking into account the likelihood that half the properties for sale are worth 50% more given the premium being paid for whole blocks of serviced luxury residential properties. I know this sounds crazy but I think the entire value of Macau could now be HK$3.5B vs. a market cap of HK$1.4B. Add in the cash, Vietnam, the U.S., and the others, consider the dividend track record, and this is the definition of a no brainer. Keep adding.
They are generating about .70 per share of recurring FCF from hotels and rental income, and an additional .20 per share from development sales in Macau, which at the current rate could continue for 20 years. This should increase significantly has average prices are already 30% higher than last year in Macau.
Net cash at the corporate level is 3.35 as of 12/31/12. Net cash by the end of June will be 3.63 (3.35+.45 FCF – .17 dividend). If you subtract the .17 dividend, the shares are trading at about 3.83. Downside to net cash is only 5.2%. Upside to true NAV is 200-300%.
Keck Seng Results… not bad at all
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2013/0322/LTN20130322533.pdf
my thoughts: Worth 100%+ more